CCL rose to 200 points How to develop the property market?

The atmosphere of the property market has clearly turned a lot. Many people in the industry have changed their minds to sing the property market this year. The upward trend in property prices has shown signs of acceleration. If the CCL index really rises to 200 points, will the property prices of the boarding houses rise to an unaffordable level? How will the property market develop?

The US Federal Reserve expects no interest rate hike this year, plus the number of local residential supply, which has not increased significantly. The property price has risen significantly after the Lunar New Year. The property market is full of favorable atmosphere. The big banks at the beginning of the year and the industry have changed their way to sing the property market. HSBC has pointed out that the annual property price has dropped by 5 to 10% from the expected, and it has turned into a 10% increase for the whole year. In addition, Shi Yongqing, founder of the Central Plains Group, concluded that the annual property price increase can reach 12 to 15%.

The property market has not slowed down.

Looking up the record, in the first week of this year, the CCL report of the Central Plains City Index was 171.92 points. If the property price rose by up to 15%, the CCL index could reach 197.77 points by the end of the year. However, the recent rise in property prices does not seem to have slowed down. The CCL index was last at 183.19 points, up 1.56% per week, the biggest increase in more than a year. At the current rate, it seems that it is not impossible to raise the property price index to 200 points. Based on the latest 183.19 points, only 9.5% can be achieved. If the index really rises to 200 points, how will the property market develop? Is the property price going to an unattainable level?

Tang Rong selected 10 boarding houses to analyze the price level of the CCL after 200 points. According to the latest price, in the 10 boarding houses, only the average price of Shatian Riverside Garden rose above 20,000 yuan. The price of other estates is about $11,800 (Jiahu Villa) to $19,700 (the first city in Sha Tin).

However, the passengers who value the property prices instead of the price are estimated by the latest admission prices of the estates. There are currently six “4” prefixes. When the property price rises by 9.5% to 200 points, there is no The “4” prefix unit is available. Among them, the price of the Kingswood Villas in Tin Shui Wai rose to 5.04 million yuan. The Amoy Gardens in Ngau Tau Kok and the Newport City in Ma On Shan, the price of the property rose above $6 million and the 80% mortgage was capped. It is no longer a budget for the riders to consider.

When the CCL rises to 200 points, is the property price so expensive? Although the “4” prefix has disappeared, the unit that can cover 80% of the mortgage still exists, and the cost of entering the market has not increased so much. It is still a level that can be afforded by the passengers, such as the second city of Shatin. Households, the admission price rose from 5.1 million yuan to 5.58 million yuan, but 80% of the mortgage, the first phase from 1.02 million yuan, an increase of 96,000 yuan to 11.16 million yuan.

Reduced trading volume on board

However, it can be speculated that when the admission price is pushed up to 5.58 million yuan, some sources with better quality and higher floors can be sold at a price of more than 6 million yuan. At that time, the choice of the source of the passengers will be reduced or transferred to the second. Line house is like a riverside garden.

However, when the CCL reaches 200 points, the housing market has a good chance of slowing down, or indirectly slowing down the property price. Taking the first city of Sha Tin as an example, the price of a two-bedroom building in the estate can exceed 6 million yuan and the turnover is less than five. When the property price last year peaked in July and August, the trading volume fell to less than 20 levels. High position.

In addition, this year’s new disk pricing will continue to restrain the market price level, it is difficult to become a second-hand property price booster, so the CCL index after testing 200 points, is bound to be a strong resistance to property prices.