10/10/2018-5

Niusheng Niuqi: The property market is coming

In the past, there was a kind of traditional wisdom: the stock market fell and the property prices would fall. Today, the stock market bears everywhere, why is the property price high?

In fact, after the financial tsunami broke out in the United States in 2008, Hong Kong stock prices both fell, but the difference is that the property price has spent about two years, has returned to the 2008 high, and then more and more ups and downs, However, the stock market will not see the old highs until this year, but it will immediately peak and enter the bear market. Under the circumstance, Hong Kong people’s confidence and enthusiasm for the property market today are not many times higher than the stock market. Some people even think that buying a building can be “safe."

When everyone recalls the battle of 2008, in addition to possibly regretting buying the wrong stock, perhaps even more regret is the lack of buying a building. As time flies, the decade-long disaster seems to be fulfilled again, but when people think that the impact on property prices may be as short as in 2008, especially the younger group, and now The sub-crisis is actually more similar to the 1997 Asian financial turmoil?

The older generation believes that they will not forget the pain of 97. The property prices have been down all the way for six years, that is, they have gradually recovered after going to SARS in 2003. On the contrary, the stock market has rebounded after more than a year in 1997. And quickly regained the high position, but unfortunately in 2000, it encountered another Internet bubble burst, but the trend is still relatively good relative to the property market.

Back to this year’s crisis, as in 1997, the hardest hit is in emerging markets, not in the United States; that is, the Fed will not introduce quantitative easing as it did in 2008, and Hong Kong’s low interest rate environment will come to an end, short-term interest. The mouth is only added or not. Under the Sino-US trade war, the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets are affected, and the economy will undoubtedly be affected. Coupled with the gradual increase in the supply of housing in the future, the authors have step by step to believe that the property market will arrive in the winter.

More importantly, everyone’s risk awareness seems to be lower than in the past. Whenever there is a problem with the mainland economy, or the news of the property market’s price reduction, many people are always eating peanuts for the first time. However, in the case of the interlocking economy between China and Hong Kong, what is more needed may be a little wary.