Standard Chartered: P-rate has room for upward adjustment
The US Federal Reserve will hold interest rates next week. Ding Shuang, chief economist of Standard Chartered Greater China and North Asia, said that the chances of interest rate hikes will be very high at that time. As the US economic growth is still good, and the president’s Trump tax reduction policy continues, the unemployment rate will be At a fairly low level, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates three to four times next year.
US to raise interest rates up to 4 times by the end of the year
The market is concerned about whether Hong Kong banks will follow up the best interest rate (P). Liu Jianheng, Senior Economist of Standard Chartered Hong Kong, believes that Hong Kong interest rates still have room to rise. If the US raises interest rates, it will affect Hong Kong interbank interest rates, if the United States from this year From the end to next year’s interest rate increase of 3 to 4 times, based on the reference index for September this year, Hong Kong will have the opportunity to raise the most favorable interest rate about 2 to 3 times in the future. However, he did not predict the rate hike.
Mr Lau also pointed out that the overall upward interbank interest rate is a quarterly factor. As long as the liquidity and fundamentals of banks in Hong Kong are stable, the upward adjustment of the interest rate will have little impact on the local economy.
In addition, Ding Shuang expects the global economy to grow by 3.8% this year. Under the slight slowdown in the growth of major global economies and the tightening of monetary policies by central banks, global economic growth is expected to slow down to 3.6% next year. Among them, the economic growth of the United States and China slowed down from 2.9% and 6.6% this year to 2.6% and 6.4% next year.
The Hong Kong dollar interest rate continued to rise across the board. According to the website of the treasury market association, the one-month interbank interest rate (HIBOR) related to the property rose for 13 days, rising to 2.24536%; the three-month interest rate climbed to 2.34571, even rising 11 day. The one-week and two-week interest rates also rose to 1.075% and 1.27929% respectively. As for long-term interest rates, the semi-annual interest rate rose to 2.42786%; the one-year interest rate was 2.7489%.