The “five percent off” of the new HOS flats affects the small public

The SAR Government has recently launched six new housing policy initiatives, mainly to achieve the “three objectives”, including: 1. Making the subsidized sale flats more affordable; 2. Increasing the supply of subsidised housing units and enhancing the provision of support for transitional housing. And; Third, encourage first-hand private residential units to launch the market as soon as possible.

The Government has recently mentioned that there will be an opportunity for the proportion of public and private housing to be changed from “June 4” to “73” and land reclamation to increase supply. The author believes that this is a signal that the government is willing to sacrifice part of the land sales revenue and to build up public housing to relieve the people’s hardship. This also implies that the so-called “high land price policy” is changing.

As far as the six new policies are concerned, in the various policies, the “five-two-fold” policy of subsidizing the sale of flats has a greater impact on the general public. The author agrees that the new policy will help the public to “get on the bus” to buy property. I believe that eligible members of the public are looking forward to this “big draw”.

In addition, the URA’s “first place” supply is only a drop in the bucket. It is a “better than nothing” approach, but it can learn about the market reaction and test whether the market welcomes such “Hong Kong people first on the train”. Of course, the author hopes that the Government can formulate a longer-term “first place” policy.

The author believes that the allocation of private residential sites to build public housing (about 10,600 gangs), although the supply can be increased in the short term, but can not solve the fundamental problem of the shortage of public housing, unless the government has other private land to increase supply, otherwise it will reduce private Housing and pushing up property prices. It is estimated that this new policy will not immediately reduce the property market or increase the supply of housing, and reclamation, construction of new towns and public-private partnerships may be the way out. From the application of land resources, the land price of these nine private flats can reach 100 billion. If the Government is willing to use the other $100 billion, in fact, many jobs can be done in people’s livelihood and community, such as community redevelopment and rehabilitation, or many Public housing and infrastructure projects. Of course, the Government’s choice so far also means that the authorities are aware of the serious situation.

In the case of vacant tax, the Government will levy a vacancy tax on first-hand residential vacant flats through the existing rates mechanism. Based on the current market conditions and property prices, the initial estimate of the rateable value of 200% is about The price will increase from 3% to 4%, which will increase the cost of the developer’s holdings. However, if the property market continues to rise, some of the tax will be offset, and the developer can also pass some of the costs to the buyer. Of course, the measures have always been selling pressure on developers. In areas with new residential supply, such as Pak Shek Kok and Tseung Kwan O, developers will still ship in goods such as rotation. However, I do not believe that the vacancy tax will force the adjustment of property prices or the increase in supply in the short term. On the contrary, it is estimated that due to the vacancy tax, the development cost will increase. When real estate developers buy land in the future, the “count” may be adjusted. Vacancies can put some pressure on developers to sell their flats, mainly in the sale of super-luxury properties, because such properties sell more existing buildings. In the face of vacant tax, many developers have adopted a new “pre-sale” arrangement which will likely speed up the launch and delivery of new buildings, but will not have a major impact on the overall property market.

In recent months, the private property price index has reached a new high, which is more competitive than the author’s forecast. The increase in property prices and transactions are still mainly concentrated in small and medium-sized units. As far as the current market conditions are concerned, the average residential and luxury residential properties will continue to rise by 8% to 12% in 2018. The increase in super-luxury properties is expected to reach 10% to 15%. In the first half of this year, property prices have increased by 8%. The opportunity narrowed. The impact of Hong Kong’s residential property market in the next six months will be mainly on government policies and sudden external political and economic factors, followed by supply and interest rate movements.