The chief economist has not adjusted the price of the market, and has not relaxed the price of the property for 10 years.
“2019 China Chief Economist Forum Annual Meeting" was held in Shanghai from January 5th to 6th, 2019. With the theme of “China’s choice under the big country game", this year’s annual meeting reviewed and summarized the global and Chinese economic situation in the past year. More than 40 well-known chief economists from various financial institutions in China gathered together to face the unprecedented global 2019. The confusing economic and financial situation will give advice to the market and suggestions.
At the attendance of the annual meeting, Sheng Songcheng, a member of the People’s Bank of China, said that it is expected that in the next 10 or even 15 years, China’s property prices will not fall sharply, nor will it retaliate, but overall stability. This steady trend will continue for many years.
Sheng Songcheng said that this judgment is based on the following points: First, the real estate regulation and control efforts are unprecedented and effective; secondly, the mainland property prices are only rising or not expected to be at the critical point of transformation; third, the current mainland property prices are stable. Or a small drop is a good thing. Fourth, insist on real estate regulation and control.
Sheng Songcheng said that insisting on regulation and control is conducive to gradually bringing the profits of the real estate industry and the financial industry closer to other industries, and promoting more funds to the real economy. He also stressed that it is necessary to be alert to the risks of the third- and fourth-tier property market. When the first-tier cities are strictly regulated, a large amount of funds will flow to the third- and fourth-tier cities. But the concentration of the population in large cities is a problem that no one can solve under any system.
Sheng Songcheng said that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development recently proposed to stabilize the real estate market in 2019, stabilize housing prices, stabilize expectations, stabilize the target, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market. Now and in the long run, we should be in the general direction, adhere to the policy of uncontrolling policies, consolidate the results of regulation and control, and do not repeat the mistakes.
Liao Qun, chief economist at CITIC Bank, also said, “The government will not allow a sharp decline, a small decline, or a more stable situation." Liao Qun said that the fiscal policy and monetary policy will be less relaxed in the better situation, the central government in the real estate sector will not relax, and the current situation is not loose to real estate. Real estate sales were good last year. He thinks that this year should be worse than last year, but it will not collapse and will not hit hard.
Invest too big or become a “grey rhinoceros"
For the current economic and financial situation in China, financial professional Zhu Yunlai said at the round-table dialogue session at the summit that “the economy must give full play to the role of market resources allocation. As long as the method is correct, the potential of the Chinese economy is very large. The scale of investment may be too large. Become a “grey rhinoceros" of the economy."
“The scale of investment is very large now. The construction in progress is 175 trillion yuan. This is still the figure for 2016. What does this mean for more than 170 trillion yuan? It is about 2.3 times of GDP in that year." Zhu Yun said that this ratio is too big. . He further pointed out that economic development must pay attention to the efficiency of input and output, that is to say, the sound development of true economic quality mainly depends on the market.
Zhu Yunlai said, “China’s economic development has gone through a long period of time. There are a lot of accumulations. There are a lot of stock problems, including excessive investment, excess, etc., but if you cross the hurdle and find the right way, the future potential is still very big".
Wang Tao, China’s chief economist at UBS Securities, said that it is necessary to further carry out structural reforms, expand opening up, and expand private enterprise access so that enterprises can make money. Starting from structural policy measures, it seems that the short-term will not be immediate, but it is still effective. For this year’s infrastructure growth investment judgment, Wang Tao believes that this year will increase by more than 10%. At the same time, manufacturing investment will slow down this year.
Monetary policy: steady growth is the first
Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that monetary policy has encountered challenges in many aspects: first, the balance between stable economic growth and the Fed rate hike cycle; second, the balance between steady growth and stable leverage; and third, from supporting private enterprises and Control the balance between property prices. The fourth is to promote the balance between exports and control of capital outflows. The current situation facing monetary policy is more complicated, and its needs are diverse in all aspects. Therefore, the current monetary policy stance seems to be “smooth and stable". In fact, it is in many ways and needs to be balanced.
“Monetary policy is the first stage in the future, and steady growth is the first priority. Especially as the downward pressure on the economy is growing, its goal will become clearer," Lian Ping said. Based on this judgment, Lian Ping has five judgments on the trend and orientation of future monetary policy: First, the future monetary policy should be to maintain its independence. Second, monetary policy is at a stage in the current stage. In the short-term, it is necessary to see steady growth. Third, monetary policy may play a better role in balancing and regulating valves in the future than fiscal policy. Fourth, the future use of monetary policy tools, the trend of diversification may be more obvious. Fifth, interest rate cuts will be more cautious.