Relaxing the building and smoothing it down

Relaxing the building and smoothing it down. Don’t mix it with the city.

The economy always has cyclical fluctuations. In order to prevent the risk of sudden rise and fall, there are so-called counter-cyclical measures in the fiscal policy, which will be curbed in the rising cycle and loosened during the down cycle to stabilize the fluctuations. However, such control measures have a common problem, that is, easy to launch, it is difficult to withdraw, and the timing must be just right. Too early or too late will cause people to criticize; secondly, it is easy to cause the government to trust the market. The implementation of counter-cyclical measures in Hong Kong’s property market has faced the above problems for many years. As property prices have fallen since last year’s peak, the market sentiment and the public’s mentality have changed. Some of the counter-cyclical measures to block people buying houses do have room for correction. However, the goal should be to optimize rather than support the market. The Government should be careful and the public should understand. Distinguish, don’t be nervous.

The Financial Secretary, Mr. Chen Maobo, mentioned in the open forum and blog on the weekend that the public can afford to pay for the first phase. The authorities are looking for an appropriate time. If it is determined that the property market will not be on fire, consider The mortgage issue “does a few tricks", but it depends on the speed and magnitude of the decline in property prices, the price difference, volume and economic conditions of the primary and secondary markets. At the same time, he reiterated that he did not intend to reduce the hot, and will not relax the three special stamp duty at this stage.

Compared with the previous statements, Chen Maobo is undoubtedly more realistic in this time. It shows that the Government has the intention to “do it" and also to explain the scruples. It is to worry that those who are interested in buying their own property will misunderstand the Government to encourage the public to enter the market with confidence. Enough, so as not to be self-defeating. In this respect, the Financial Secretary is exactly the same as Chen Delin, the President of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. It is necessary to confirm that the property market will enter the down cycle to relax the counter-cyclical measures. The Chief Executive, Mrs Carrie Lam, said in the “Hong Kong Economic Summit 2019″ hosted by the newspaper in December last year: “If anyone has any illusions, seeing that property prices are falling, the government will make a rescue, you can take advantage of it!" It is also in the same line, without exceeding the existing position.

However, instead of entangled in the debate on whether the relaxation measures are equal to the market, why not take the opportunity to break through the inherent thinking, adjust the policy to optimize the counter-cycle frame, improve the market efficiency, and facilitate the people who can afford the building but cannot afford the first phase of the home purchase and help Second-hand units are re-circulating. The current property market counter-cyclical measures can be divided into two major categories. One is demand management. Through additional stamp duty, buyer stamp duty and double stamp duty, to prevent speculation and even investment, those who own the property are more affected; the second is to tighten Under the conditions of mortgage and stress test, buyers must pay at least 40% of the first period, and all those who have no building will be treated. Since the adjustment of stamp duty is a big deal, the government is not daring to change it. It is relatively unreasonable. Relatively speaking, residential mortgages have been tightened in eight rounds. There is room for gradual relaxation in response to the situation, which is also beneficial to rationalizing the structure of the property market.

Since the first round of tightening mortgages in 2009 and the introduction of additional stamp duty in 2010, the property market has been leveled up and the demand for management has been met, but at the same time the market has been seriously distorted. In the past four years, the registration of second-hand transactions was recorded at about 40聽000 per year, which was less than half of the more than 1聽000 cases in 2010. The registration of the first-hand flats in the four years was about 16,000. There were more than 18,000 cases, accounting for nearly 30% of the total turnover, far exceeding the proportion of about 10% before the counter-cyclical measures. At the end of 2017, the total stock of private housing in the market was over 1.17 million. The turnover rate of second-hand housing was only 3.6%, which was extremely low. Based on the various stamp duty covers first-hand and second-hand buyers, second-hand trading accounts for such a disparity. I believe that there is a great relationship with the tightening of mortgages. If buyers are unable to cope with the first phase, they will only be able to offer a new two-button, otherwise there will be no Opportunity to get on the bus.

The second-hand market turnover rate has shrunk, far below the healthy level of 10%, which has greatly weakened the function of price discovery. The overall potential supply has also been greatly reduced. As a result, the property market has been tilted to the first-hand market for a long time, and the home business ladder has also turned to the new market. Make the already distorted property market more tangled. The HKMA has always stressed that tightening mortgages is aimed at assisting banks in controlling risks and safeguarding financial security. At present, property prices have seen a decline. Whether or not they fall enough, the risk of new mortgages should be lower than before. From the perspective of risk control, relax Just follow the trend; if it can remove the obstacles that restrict second-hand circulation, and rationalize the difference between the second-hand market, it will be of great benefit to the stable development of the property market. There is no need to have a relationship with the market.

It is true that whether it is fine-tuning or withdrawing from counter-cyclical measures is not an easy task, but it is not impossible. The key is timing and orderly, and the misjudgment is reduced. The SAR government may wish to refer to the US and Europe before withdrawing from quantitative easing. It has been deployed for a long time and provided externally. Forward-looking guidance, actively communicate with the market to explain policy objectives. Since the authorities admit that the mortgage is too tight to hinder the flow of housing, it is worthwhile to make some adjustments. However, when it is suitable for the shot, it is linked to the rate and extent of the decline in property prices. How can it not lead to the association of the city? . In fact, there are many factors affecting property prices. Buyers’ confidence and expectations for the future seem to be more dominant. If you do not want the public to have the illusion of relaxing mortgages, financial officials should take the lead not to confuse the two.