US is expected to cut interest rates
Large banks have slightly increased the interest rate of buildings, which has little impact on the burden on landlords, which is not enough to have a negative impact on the property market. The U.S. interest rate next week is expected to implement interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which will ease the pressure on banks in Hong Kong to raise interest rates and maintain a low level of interest rates to promote the development of the property market.
The one-month interest rate continued to rise to a high of nearly 263 years in the past 11 years. The two large banks took the lead in raising interest rates and cutting rebates on second-hand buildings, and many banks launched deposits and offers, three phenomena co-occurring, last year. In September, Hong Kong added P (best interest rate) after half a year is rare. Does it mean that the bank needs to raise interest rates in the second half of the year?
First of all, due to the small adjustment of the bank, the interest rate hike is only 0.01%, which has no effect on the actual contribution rate of H. The burden on the building has not increased. I believe that it will not reduce the confidence of first-hand and second-hand buyers entering the market, and will not have a negative impact on the property market.
Adequate balance of the banking system
As for the balance of the banking system in Hong Kong, although it was nearly 400 billion yuan before the start of the US interest rate hike cycle, it has gradually decreased to about 54.3 billion yuan in the past three years. However, it is still a reasonable and sufficient level, and bank lending remains prudent.
In addition, the market expects the US to start to cut interest rates in the second half of the year, with more than 70% interest rate cuts in July, which will help Hong Kong and the United States to narrow interest margins. Although Hong Kong may not immediately follow, it can reduce the pressure on bank capital costs. It is estimated that the interest rate will fall after the political market and the semi-annual factors. The bank’s interest rate hike pressure has not expanded. It is expected that the mortgage interest rate will remain at a low level of about 2.5% this year, which will help stabilize the property market.
However, if trade wars and social conflicts continue to ferment and deepen, affecting the market investment climate, funds have the opportunity to speed up the flow, banks face increased borrowing risks, and do not rule out a small interest rate hike, buyers and owners must make a good financial budget.