The property price fell by 20% to 30%.
Yesterday’s “Economic Daily" real estate station reported that some economists pointed out that the revision of the “Fugitive Offenders Ordinance" and the recent social movements have caused the market to worry about the status of Hong Kong’s financial center after the amendments, so that foreign capital has been withdrawn, and the relevant effects have been reflected in the stock market. . If the regulations are passed or the property market is blasted, the property price will fall by about 20% to 30%.
Scholars estimate that the revision of the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance or the blast of the property market is estimated to fall by about 20% to 30%. For the residential area No. 1 in Area 4C of Kai Tak Runway, the original bidding (14th) will be closed, but the closing time will be delayed. It is considered that if the situation of the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance is deteriorated, the price of the tender and the number of tenders will be low.
Two major crashes in 30 years, due to major crisis
Tang Rong looked at the quarterly information of the Rating and Valuation Department since the 1980s. The property price fell nearly half to two times and fell more than 10% three times. To reach two or three percent, there were two. In order to observe the fall in the property market, it is necessary to cite long-term information and it is sufficient to reflect the fall in the price of the property. The price index of the private property of the Rating and Valuation Department is only a quarterly figure for the longer term. Tang Rong has compiled each time. The decline in the market experience and the decline in the property price index:
To reach the range of 20% to 30% as indicated by the economists, the first appearance was the Hong Kong future crisis in the 1980s. In addition, the bank squeezed out the stock market crash. The market adjustment period lasted for 3 or 12 seasons, and the property price fell by 32. %.
The second time, the longest and largest, is of course the financial turmoil in 1997 to the SARS period in 2003. It lasted for 24 quarters or 6 years and the property price fell by 65%. I believe that most of the people in Hong Kong are still vivid.
From the above two market declines, we can find that if there is a 20% to 30% or even greater decline, the Hong Kong market and society must have a major crisis, and it is a wave of waves, which will continue to adjust the property market for a long time and create huge downside.
What about other down markets? There were only 4% twice. In 1989, it was a panic caused by the June 4th incident. In 1992, the property market was overheated. The Hong Kong British government decided to tighten the number of mortgages, from 90% to 80%, causing property prices to fall. In 1994, the British Hong Kong Government also made a move to combat property prices, and later encountered a rate hike period. As a result, property prices were adjusted in six quarters and about one and a half years. Property prices fell by 12%.
Major events happen one after another
After entering the millennium, the financial tsunami in 2008, the decline period was quite short, only 14%, only two quarters. The other is from 2015 to 2016, the Hong Kong government to curb the property market and financial market volatility, property prices also fell back two quarters, about 10%.
Therefore, property prices in Hong Kong will fall by 20% to 30%. The data that can be found is only two. Tang Rong’s past assessment pointed out that according to the evolution of Hong Kong property prices over the past 30 years, it is quite a big thing, and it’s a big thing that can lead to Property prices have appeared for a long time and a large degree of adjustment. Whether this controversy has reached the two levels in the schedule, Tang Rong can not judge at this stage, but also see the development of the situation!