Looking at the Hong Kong stocks repeatedly, sitting on the property price adjustment
In the face of investors’ continually sloppy speculation, large-capital IPOs, the mainland’s launch of the Kechuang board as an excuse for hot money, and the unpredictable variables in the semi-annual performance period, the “seven turn over" appeared early, resulting in Individual stocks and sectors fluctuated sharply in July. Nowadays, the key to maintaining a normal heart is the control of the ratio of funds entering the market. In the short term, it is absolutely appropriate to speculate, and all of them are based on the value of individual stocks.
In the second half of the year, the two major positive factors in the rebound of Hong Kong stocks all fell, making it the best excuse for the recent correction of the Hang Seng Index. Earlier, the “Study Conference" gave a green light for China and the United States to return to the negotiating table. However, there was no such thing as a major policy dispute between the two countries. The talks during the G20 period only took the current needs, that is, the Chinese left more than 300 billion US dollars to the United States. Commodities are temporarily subject to additional tariffs, and US President Trump has won large orders for China for its agricultural ticket warehouse. In fact, the United States continues to suppress Huawei and spread to DJI’s drones, reflecting that the Cold War mentality will continue to affect the business activities of the two countries in the future; and the US’s phased agreement is only for the next year’s presidential election, the most estimated It will be achieved from the end of this year to the beginning of next year to play the most favorable campaign effect for Trump. As for the short-term easing of Sino-US trade wars, China will not need to significantly expand its economic stability measures in the third quarter, which will have a neutral impact on China and Hong Kong stock markets.
Continued speculation, interest rate increase, fluctuation
As for the other market focus, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates. With the US non-farm payrolls data slightly better than last week, the market estimates that the interest rate cuts will be reduced from three to two during the year, and the interest rate cuts in July will be up to 0.25%. At present, the US economy continues to have a stable preference. The Fed experienced a sharp economic rate hike last year. It has re-exported pigeons earlier, and Trump’s comments have shown that the Fed failed to adhere to its economic data to adjust interest rates. Independence, it is also impossible to control the market’s prediction of interest rates. Instead, it has been taken away by the outside world, which has weakened the bureau’s prestige. The uncertainty of the market has become one of the factors that fluctuate in the short-term market conditions. It is estimated that before and after each interest rate meeting in the future, it will bring short-term speculation and opportunities for relevant interest-sensitive sectors.
From the analysis of the market’s technical trends, after deducting the first trading day of the third quarter, there were more than 100 billion yuan in trading. The rest of the day, trading was relatively sparse, reflecting that the market has no revelation in the backward direction. Earlier, the Hang Seng Index once rose 50 days and the 100-antenna resistance zone, which led to the HSI’s slight break of 29,000 points. The funds were obviously matched with the subscription of new shares, which greatly reduced the impact. Undoubtedly, the cumulative rebound of the HSI in June was more than 60% of the correction in May, reflecting that the market is still stable. Yesterday, the HSI returned to test 50 antennas and 20 antennas seem to have support, and the RSI returned to the 50 level, there are signs of stabilization, investors should collect near 28000 points, strictly set 250 antenna (27609 points) for stop loss .
Immigration tides into the last straw
The long-term bull market in Hong Kong has not only made Hong Kong’s property more expensive, but also one of the main contradictions of the deep gap between the rich and the poor in the local community. It is impossible for the two chief executives to solve the problem of high property prices with a top priority. The next generation is extremely troubled by the prospects, and it is difficult to create a sense of belonging, and it is even more irritating. As a stock investment analyst, only real estate development stocks can continue to have a 40% to 50% asset discount to analyze their investment value. However, many Hong Kong people hold a large proportion of their properties, facing the current political turmoil in Hong Kong. Whether it will catalyze a new wave of immigration, and then become the last straw to make the property market into a major adjustment, it is worth considering.
In fact, local second-hand property transactions have been slowed down in recent months. The outflow of funds has also seen an upward trend in Hong Kong. The rate of interest rate reduction will be less than expected. The local employment situation will be affected by the Sino-US trade war. As for the special commercial status of Hong Kong, it will become a Sino-US The chess pieces in the game also have the opportunity to weaken the credit rating of Hong Kong. At present, it seems that the chances of the SAR Government becoming a “lame duck" in the coming days are growing. In addition, it is important to note that foreign nationals who have not returned to the post-immigration tide in 1989 are now close to retirement and have the opportunity to add to the new wave of immigration in the future. The amendment of the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance has already made the past long-term inflows from the Mainland into the local black money. The future has greatly reduced the use of the local property market as a safe haven and even derived a large number of cash outflows.
Undoubtedly, the central government has already prepared for some Hong Kong people to migrate to the outside world. More mainlanders have made up for the manpower demand and have contributed to the integration of China and Hong Kong in 2047. As for the Hong Kong people being trapped in the current situation and their future prospects, it seems that there is a great opportunity to seek immigration opportunities and develop new outlets in the South-East Asia Region. This will expose Hong Kong to a new round of rectification tests. At the same time, this is likely to become a high point now. The local property market adjusts the catalyst. In recent years, the ratio of investment and home ownership has dropped significantly. Under the low interest rate, many major cities in the world have adjusted their prices. However, Hong Kong is by no means a major beneficiary of low-interest rates! It is fortunate that Hong Kong can continue to play the role of China’s major foreign financial center. According to past experience, the political impact will not be too long. In addition, as the future of the SAR Government’s large-scale reclamation plan seems to be difficult, it is expected to bring certain support to property prices. However, it is expected that the property market will inevitably have a one-two-year adjustment.
In the face of the volatility of short-term market conditions, the ups and downs of individual stocks have been subject to different factors. In addition to many unusual attacks on private shares, the semi-new stock speculations have also experienced rapid declines due to hot money. Investors are advised to strictly control the level of funds entering the market in order to achieve a normal heart. Heavyweights are still sought after, and the quality of management is more valued.
At the current level, you can consider collecting it in the vicinity of 28,000 points. If some strong stocks are adjusted, it should be absorbed. For example, AIA (01299) and China Tower (00788), which are policy beneficiaries, can be taken. 00200), conch cement (00914) in the infrastructure sector, and stone medicine (01093) in the pharmaceutical sector can pay more attention. As for the interest-sensitive mainland property management stocks (01778), Shandong Gold (01787) in the gold sector, and the local food stocks (00341), it is recommended to take the opportunity to absorb. The trend of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, and the short-term adjustment is conducive to short-term absorption. At this stage, the proportion of 25% of the funds entering the market is better.