11/12/2017-8

BOC HSI will challenge 34,000 next year

Hong Kong stocks soared more than 30% YTD, with Xie Guoliang, head of economic and policy research at BOC Hong Kong (02388), indicating that the current P / E ratio of the HSI is about 15 times higher than other markets around the world. However, with the rise in US interest rates and other factors Hong Kong stocks hope to rise like Hong Kong this year next year, and the risk in the stock market has risen a lot. Investors should be vigilant. He expects Hong Kong’s economy to grow by about 3% in 2018, coupled with factors such as ample liquidity in the market and growth in corporate profits. HSI expected to see 34,000 points next year with an average daily turnover of 95 billion yuan.

Xie Guoliang also said that the U.S. tax reform will make capital return to the United States, especially the Federal Reserve next year to raise interest rates three times, it is unknown what will change the global market. The property market in Hong Kong is relatively riskier than the stock market and we expect the government to maintain the current tightening measures in the property market. According to Cai Yongxiong, a senior economist at the Bank of Hong Kong, the price rise of property next year is expected to be affected by the rise in interest rates and the supply increase. It is expected that the rate of increase will gradually slow down, possibly with low units only.

HSBC optimistic about science and technology financial stocks

Nick Timberlake, head of emerging markets equity at HSBC Global Investment Management, expects corporate earnings growth to be expected to continue into next year, so emerging markets are likely to continue to find support next year. He said leading technology stocks this year do not think long-term undervaluation will occur unless profitability deteriorates. If there is no technology company in the next year’s investment portfolio, it will be very unwise. However, he admits it is hard to estimate the best-performing industry next year Whether technology stocks. The bank also optimistic about the financial stocks, because both profitability is good, but also benefit from the interest rate hike in the United States next year, the environment.

Mei Lizhong, director of HSBC Global Investment Management and director of Asian credit investment, pointed out that the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate compared to the past ultra-low interest rate environment, only the normalization of interest rates, unlike the real rate hike cycle of the nineties, the expected Federal Reserve Continue to raise interest rates slowly. When the interest rate increases to a certain extent, Hong Kong will naturally follow, but it is hard to say when it has any action. The level of bank interest in Hong Kong banks is affected by the seasonal factors such as the capital injection of new shares.