Hang Seng Index expected next year 34,000 BOC Hong Kong: Beware of callback risk

BOCHK (2388) said in a report released yesterday that the economy of Hong Kong is expected to maintain steady growth in 2018 with GDP up about 3%. Property prices will gradually slow down and there is a chance of a low single-digit rate of increase. As for the stock market, Xie Guoliang, head of the Hong Kong economy and policy research at the Bank of China, said that as Hong Kong stocks soared more rapidly next year, investors should be wary of the risk of a correction in the stock market. It is estimated that Hang Seng Index could look forward to 34,000 points next year. Hong Kong Commercial Daily reporter Li Ying Xuan

The BOCHK report shows that Hong Kong’s economy has picked up this year and the employment and tourism industries have bottomed out and the employment rate has soared. In terms of investment, many industries are optimistic about business prospects. In the first three quarters of 2017, the real economic growth in Hong Kong reached 3.9%. The bank expects the full-year economic growth in 2017 is expected to reach 3.8%, the fastest growth in 2011.

The bank expects a sustained rapid recovery of the global economy by 2018 and Hong Kong’s economic growth of 3%, which is broadly in line with the average growth of the past 10 years. “Given the rapid economic growth this year and the high economic growth base, we expect to see 2018 Growth is expected to be set at 3%. “Xie Guoliang said.

Expected global market is not short of money

Hong Kong stocks have performed well this year. Especially after the listing of several new technology stocks recently, investors’ attention to Hong Kong stocks soared. Bank of China Hong Kong expects HSI to see 34,000 points next year. Xie Guoliang warned investors should be cautious stock market will have a high callback risk, especially in the United States from positive to negative interest rates and tax reform, the risk and volatility will rise.

Xie Guoliang continued that although the United States will continue its moderate rate hike in 2018, interest rates are still at a mild level. Europe and Japan will not rush to substantially tighten their monetary policy. The mainland’s monetary policy also tends to be stable. Therefore, it is expected that the global market will not ” Lack of money. ” Given Hong Kong’s economy is improving, we expect Hong Kong to continue to attract funds.

From a technical perspective, the BOC Hong Kong report shows that the price-earnings ratio of Hong Kong stocks is not yet at a historical high and is not high compared with the global market. There is still room for growth.

It is worth mentioning that the BOC Hong Kong report mentions that after a rough calculation, the total amount of IPO funds raised by Hong Kong stocks in 2018 is expected to reach 120 billion yuan and will rank the fifth in the world. Among them, some overseas companies may join the Hong Kong stock market, VietJetAir, EuroSibEnergo, LontohCoal, EnergyResources and Agrifirma plans Hong Kong listed.