The price of the property fell a few times, the government will reduce the spicy
In recent years, when the market fell, the most frequently asked in the real estate industry was how much the property price fell, and the government would reduce the hotness. The former Chief Executive, Mrs Lam, said that “the price drop is a good thing", except that the agency industry’s disillusionment It also revealed that property prices have not fallen by 20%, and it is difficult to reduce the spicy space.
Earlier, the Chief Executive, Mrs Lam, said that although some people think that the property market decline is a bad thing, she thinks it is a good thing. It also quotes that the Rating and Valuation Index has fallen by nearly 3.7% to 380.3 points in October after 394.8 points in August this year. The adjustment has not far offset the increase this year, let alone the increase since she took office. If the fantasies imagine that the government will rescue the city, it can be “satisfied."
The property price has not fallen by 20%.
At the beginning of the property market’s turnaround, it is also expected that the government will not reduce the trade rash. It is only the official’s clear “opening card" that the government hopes that the government will reduce the number of people. It is still a bit surprising or shows The excessively high property prices have been a consensus of the community. Therefore, the Chief Executive must also show that he is “sticking to the ground" and understanding the people’s feelings.
Depending on the price of the property, it is not only the current Chief Executive Lin Zhengyue. Looking back three years ago, the property market also fell after the end of 2015 and early 2016. The then Chief Executive, Leung Chun-ying, also repeatedly said that the Government has increased the supply order. Property prices have fallen, and each new flat has reduced its price by 1 million yuan. The public has saved a total of 92 billion yuan.
Looking back at the comments made by Mrs Lam on the day before, the current price decline is still slight, but how much is it enough to fall? If it is to offset the increase in property prices this year, the high price of this year’s property is 394.8 points. To return to 352.7 points at the end of last year, the property price will fall by 10.7%. After deducting the decline in recent property prices, there is still a 7% drop. space.
However, if Lin Zheng calculated the property price when he took office in July last year, the property price index before his appointment and in June 2017 was about 336.1 points. Based on this year’s high level, the property price needs to fall by 15% to offset. The increase in this period, that is, the property price will fall another 11% to 12%.
At present, the real estate sector generally estimates that property prices will fall between 10% and 15% next year. Even if the “offset since the inauguration" was used as an indicator of reducing the hotline, next year may not necessarily have the opportunity to see the government reduce the hot, real estate sector or Wait a little longer.
In fact, the property price fell 15%, which may be considered a conservative estimate. As early as when Liang Zhenying took office, there were still many voices in the society that the property price was too high. If the property price at the time of his appointment was used as an indicator, the property price index in June 2012 was 205.1 points, to return to this level. The property price will have to fall by 48%, which looks quite scary!
As for the Government’s first launch of “Spicy Recruitment" (extra stamp duty), it was in November 2010, when the property price index was only 163.7 points. If the property price returned to this time, the drop would be 59%. Of course, if property prices really fall by 50% and 60%, there will be a lot of negative assets in the community. I believe the Government will not move to this point.
However, the above data should reflect one thing. After nearly 10 years of the bull market in the property market, the cumulative increase in property prices is in multiples, and it is out of social capacity. Even if the current property price falls by 10% or 20%, I believe that Still not at the level that the government thinks is appropriate.