U.S. interest rate hike of 0.25% Hong Kong Silver is not followed by Chen Delin: Banks will add P sooner or later

As expected by the market, the US Federal Reserve Bureau raised interest rates again by 0.25% in March and the federal funds rate range rose to 1.75% to 2%, the seventh time since December 2015. Interest rate increase. Chen Delin, president of the Hong Kong Monetary and Authority Authority, said that rising cost of funds led to pressure on banks to raise interest rates. If Hong Kong and the United States spread widening, the funds will flow again.

After the announcement of the Fed rate hike, the HKMA raised the basic interest rate of the discount window by 0.25 percent to 2.25 percent. Major banks in Hong Kong remained inactive. HSBC, Hang Seng (011) and BOC Hong Kong (2388) both maintained the best lending rate (P) of 5%. Standard Chartered Hong Kong’s prime rate remained at 5.25%. However, HSBC raised the interest rate on US dollar deposits by 0.1% to 0.25%, and it seems that it is determined to compete for US dollar funds.

Material US rate hike in September will surely increase P

“Although there is no change in the prime rate, it is only a matter of time before the bank is added,” Chen Delin said. The one-month Hibor rose more than 1.5 percent, putting pressure on the banks and adding P; Once again, the funds may flow out of Hong Kong again and asset prices will fluctuate. He advises investors to manage risks carefully.

The Hong Kong dollar Hibor continued to tighten as major banks in Hong Kong did not increase P. Among them, the one-month Hibor, which reflects the burden of homeowners’ supply, rose to 1.60125 per cent yesterday, 2.4 points higher than the previous day, and rose for 13 consecutive trading days, creating a 10-year high. In addition, Hibor for the three-month Hong Kong dollar rose to 2.01%.

Market participants generally expected that even if HKEx did not follow the Fed’s increase in interest rates yesterday and increase P, it is expected that after the Fed raises interest rates by 0.25 percent in September, Hong Kong Bank will almost certainly increase P by then.

Depends on the flow of funds out of Hong Kong

According to the report by the director of the Institute of Global Economics and Finance of the Chinese University, Liu Zuode, Zang Tailiang said when the Bank of Hong Kong Bank raised the prime rate, it depends on the pace of outflow of funds in Hong Kong. If the balance of the banking system in Hong Kong drops to 20 billion yuan or less, It will prompt the bank to raise interest rates immediately.

However, Zhuang Taiquan believes that even if Hong Kong banks raise interest rates at present, they will not have immediate impact on the property market because of their modest pace. It is expected that Hong Kong will increase interest rates by 2,000 per cent to reduce downward pressure on the property market.

As for interest rates, Chen Shaoping, general manager of investment management at BOC Hong Kong (2388), said that the Fed’s interest rate increase before the end of the year is already a foregone conclusion, but he believes that there are still changes in whether or not to raise interest rates twice. It is expected that the United States will eventually increase interest rates, and will It still depends on the labor market, inflation and economic growth.

The number of interest rate hikes this year is still full of variables

Chen Shaoping mentioned that from the interest rate futures prices, the opportunity for the United States to raise interest rates twice is only half higher. Although the Fed is more optimistic about the economic outlook, local inflation is not enough to worry people and the number of interest rate increases this year is expected to increase. It will still be full of variables.

Feng Securities believes that after the United States Federal Reserve announced that it raised interest rates by 0.25 percent, it will raise interest rates twice in the remainder of 2018, 0.25 percent each time. After entering the 2019 rate, it will raise interest rates twice, the same rate of 0.25 percent, for a total of 0.5. PCT. Feng Securities also believes that the Fed’s argument is biased towards the hawks, and it is expected that the dollar will bring a new round of strength.