Second-hand property prices have not stabilized
After the property price has been adjusted for nearly half a year, has it fallen? In the short term, it still depends on whether the second-hand Xiaoyangchun will appear, the developer’s pricing and the second-hand property price index performance. If the three factors are in sync, reflecting the adjustment of the property market, there is a chance to complete it.
Jiahu Villa 2 rooms, the price reproduces 5 prefixes
Second-hand construction prices have shown signs of low recovery. Take the 2 houses of Jiahu Resort in Tianshuiwei, the indicator housing estate as an example. Recently, there is a high-rise 2-bedroom apartment with an area of 449 square feet, which is about 5.08 million yuan. It belongs to nearly 3 housing estates. In the month, the 2-room property price reappeared for the first time in the “5 prefix”, which was about the return of the March-April 2018 level.
Whether property prices will continue to stabilize or even rise, first of all, the situation of Xiaoyangchun after the Lunar New Year. With reference to last year’s data, purchasing power will break out after the Lunar New Year in February. It will be viewed by the top 10 housing estates. In March and April last year, the volume exceeded 200.
In this year’s situation, individual housing estates such as Ap Lei Chau South Horizons have been in good shape last month. In February, 8 transactions were recorded, a sharp increase from the same period last month. In addition, the volume of 10 large housing estates in January rose by 80% to 184 cases, reflecting the increase in buyers’ confidence in the market. Secondly, the second-hand property prices began to stabilize after the previous low-cost disk consumption. It is also expected to be favorable in March. Second-hand Xiaoyangchun appeared in April.
Concerned about the new disk pricing and sales CCL trend
Even if the second-hand Xiaoyangchun appeared, but the long-term property price trend, it still depends on the new disk pricing, because of the new disk and second-hand property prices, there has always been a mutual relationship. According to the data of Midland Realty, the new premium in the second quarter of last year (that is, the difference between the price of new flats and second-hand housing estates in the same district) has reached a maximum of 20.7%, which has also become one of the driving forces for the surge in second-hand property prices. However, the premium for the first-hand new market in the previous quarter narrowed to only about 2.5%. This shows that the new market is opening lower, and it is difficult for second-hand small owners to make a better price.
Therefore, the pricing and sales of a large-scale new index with an inevitable impact on second-hand property prices. After the Lunar New Year, the focus of the new disk includes Nanchang Station Huiyu III, and the sunrise Kangcheng Phase 7A project. The two projects involve more than a thousand people. It is assumed that the pricing and sales of the two projects are higher than the market expectations and are ideal. Driven second-hand property prices to stabilize. Thirdly, if you analyze the data trend, you can refer to the CCL of the Central Plains City. It is assumed that the index can be maintained at a stable level in the next two to three months, and the momentum has not shown any downward trend. It can be regarded as a property price. There are supported signals. According to the latest Chongyuan City Index CCL, the latest report of 169.95 points, returning to the level of February 2018, after rising only 0.4% for 2 weeks, fell by 0.53% per week.
If the above three factors can be synchronized, it can be regarded as the second-hand property price stabilized. However, subject to the instability of the external economy and fluctuations in the performance of the local stock market, whether property prices will rise in 2018 and surge by 10% in the past six months, I believe that the opportunity is not great.