Is the private building completed?

From the supply of land, or “Low Island” will lead to more discussions. One of the points is that the completion of private buildings has increased, and property prices have not been curbed. Is there more or less private buildings?

In the past four years, the number of completed housing in Hong Kong has increased substantially and continuously. The number of completed housing in Hong Kong between 2015 and 2018 has increased from 11,296 per year to 20,968 per year. In the meantime, it has risen 86% in three years, and the average annual increase is 28%. It is not strong. He pointed out that property prices have not only declined, but have risen sharply. Apart from a very slight -4% decline in 2016, there has been a double-digit annual increase in the past two years, which has increased by 27% in three years. Therefore, when we think about whether we should support the reclamation or not, we should not take it for granted that as long as the reclamation of land increases the supply of housing, we can curb property prices. This is an illusion without empirical support!

The actual completion of the long-term goal is less

Huang Yuanshan, deputy director general of the Solidarity Hong Kong Fund, wrote last week that the long-term policy did not consider the need to “follow the trail” because the actual number of completed houses per year is less than the average annual target of the long-term policy. For example, the first 10-year housing supply target proposed by the company in 2013 pointed out that Hong Kong needs a total of 470,000 units, or an average of 47,000 units per year. But in fact, in 2013, only 22,300 units were completed, which is a drop of 24,700 units.

When the long-term policy updated its 10-year housing supply target, it did not count the shortage in the past year. In 2013-2017 alone, there was a total of 99,000 units in the short-term between the annual target and the actual completion of the long-term policy.

Whether the number of private residences is large or small is controversial. The first thing to mention is that the number of private housing developments has continued to rise since 2015. Last year was 20,968, but the Rating and Valuation Department announced the latest data showing that this is the case. The forecasted completion volume for the two years has peaked and will fall to 20,400 and 20,200. However, even last year’s high 20,968 gangs, according to Tang Rong’s information, actually did not meet the standard.

Make up for lost 10 years, I don’t know when to chase

In the 40 years of private housing completion from 1981 to 2020, a total of nearly 900,000 private buildings were completed. The number of completed buildings per five years should be 112,140, ​​with an average annual completion of 22,428. In other words, according to the schedule data, the number of private buildings completed has not reached the average for about 15 years.

In theory, the private housing supply in Hong Kong has experienced a 10-year “lost period”. The attached table shows that there were only 50,000 people from 2006 to 2015. According to the average, about 110,000 people were lost in 10 years, to the latest 5 years. Only when we are close to the long-term average, if we want to make up for the lost 10 years of private residential units that have fallen behind and are less built, we do not know what year and month to go.

Therefore, it can be said that the private housing from the supply of land to the completion of the occupation for the public to live in, is actually a long process, nowadays, without slamming, pushing the ground, not building, the impact will only slowly emerge in a few years, so hard After years of hard work, after tens of years of hard work, Donald Tsang claimed to increase supply in the late political period. To Liang Zhenying, Lin Zhengyue took office, and the amount of private buildings was only posted to the average. Tang Rong only knows that more land is created, even if it is placed If you lose your time, you will be able to avoid the dilemma of continuing to be unavailable.