Bank of Communications International: Property prices rose by more than 10% during the year
The Central Plains City Leading Index (CCL) rose for 8 weeks. Bank of Communications International Co-Director (Real Estate Research) Xie Yicong believes that the global market sentiment is improving, interest rate expectations are reversed, and the stock market rises to drive the wealth effect. The middle class is in a hurry to get on the train. The price rebounded rapidly and it is expected that there will still be more than 10% increase during the year.
Xie Tao said in an exclusive interview with the newspaper that the property market peaked in August last year, mainly related to the weak factors of weak stock market, Sino-US trade friction and interest rate hike expectations, which made potential buyers choose to wait for the market. A lot of purchasing power, now the above concerns have been swept away.
“Second-hand market has always been less popular. After the Lunar New Year, buyers suddenly poured into the market. There are not many second-hand units that can be selected. Therefore, the price will be chased. If the seller is chasing the seller, the property price will rise faster." CCL last week reported 179.5 Xie Yucong expects that the property price index will rise to 200 in the second half of the year, which is about 11.4% higher than the current level. It will reach 210 before the end of next year and the potential increase will be about 17%.
In the past decade, the government has repeatedly launched hot-selling and tightening mortgages, which has greatly pushed up the first-phase ratio. Xie Yicong pointed out that the hot tricks raised the barriers to getting on the train, and it was harder for young people to get on the train. It also led to the chain break of the upgrade of the building. However, he believed that the government would not easily relax the hot tricks, and the property market might rise even more after the relaxation.
“If the hot trick is effective, it will not be getting higher and higher. At present, the hot trick only suppresses the circulation of the second-hand building, and the relaxation of the property market will be healthier." He said that based on the second-hand transaction building being depressed, it is necessary to assess the property market atmosphere and see The first-hand market is more accurate. At present, as long as the price of the first-hand building is reasonable, it can be generally cleared. For example, the Ma Tau Kok project in the New World is still in the market, and the 294 people are clearing up every day. Therefore, the over-purchase multiple is the key to judging the atmosphere of the property market.
Supply, global recession, the property market began to burst
The property market has undergone minor adjustments in 2015 and 2018, mainly related to the stock market and policies, which has led to a change in the mindset of buyers. However, in order to trigger major adjustments, it is necessary to supply a large number of supply, a large-scale global economic recession or a drastic change in the central government policy. However, it is not currently possible to see the risks involved. “At present, the property market is very safe. 60% of the buildings are not mortgaged. The mortgage rate is low. It is estimated that the property price will fall by 20% to 30% before negative assets will appear."
The Government is studying a number of measures to increase land supply to alleviate the problem of short supply. Mr Tse believes that land policies such as “Low Day on Tokushima" are too long-term to resolve the supply vacuum period for more than a decade. The existing supply is simply insufficient to meet the demand for housing. It is recommended that the Government speed up the conversion of agricultural land or reform the land policy, shorten the time and price of land replenishment. Although the formalities will affect the interests of those who have vested interests, it will not be a problem if they are properly compensated.