Interest rate increases the owner’s bargaining space
Since the government launched the new housing policy at the end of June, the new sales in the second half of the year have been fully accelerated. The author has already expected that the second-hand property price rise will be inferior to the first half of this year, which coincides with the Sino-US trade war, the rapid depreciation of the renminbi, and the US Federal Reserve. The Bank further raised interest rates at the end of September. The Bank of Hong Kong immediately raised the rate and raised the best interest rate (P). This has caused Hong Kong to be full of negative factors in the third quarter. It is expected that developers will actively sell new orders this quarter, in the case of price restraint. It is inevitable to put pressure on the second-hand market. At that time, the property price may be slightly adjusted, which will drive the registration rate of the low-priced building to rebound from the low level, which is expected to challenge the 40% level.
In the first half of this year, property prices have been strong. According to the Hong Kong Property Information Research Department, the second-hand property prices in Hong Kong have recorded a 12.3% increase in the first eight months. However, as the market sentiment turned from optimism to calm, the property market was also affected by the negative factors. Mainly because of the stalemate in the Sino-US trade war and the volatility of the stock market, Hong Kong Bank also has the opportunity to raise interest rates again this year, which has made the market wait and see atmosphere, and the property market has slowed down. A survey conducted by Hong Kong Property Property found that more than half of the respondents were fainting this year’s property market trend, with 22.2% thinking that Hong Kong property prices would fall within 5% within the next 12 months, accounting for the largest number; 19.3% believed that the decline was 5% to 10 %. The survey also showed that only 33% of respondents plan to enter the market in the next 12 months, which is not only a drop of 3.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, but also a record low of 10 in the same survey. It can be seen that under the uncertain market prospects, the public’s wait-and-see mood is heating up.
Under the influence of new housing policies such as vacant taxes, developers are expected to actively promote new sales in the fourth quarter. The current property market focuses on the primary market. The reason is that the new price is close to the market level and enjoys the payment concessions. The second-hand building is difficult to compare. It is a pressure on the second-hand market. Under the pace of the bank’s interest rate hike, it is believed that there will be owners or investors who will widen the bargaining space. After the price adjustment, the ratio of second-hand residential registrations of 5 million yuan or less in the fourth quarter is expected to rebound from the low level and even rise to 40%.