Huang Jianye: 4 reasons to support property prices difficult to fall

Midland Group (01200) Chairman Huang Jianye that the property market has a small bubble, is now in the “cattle three” stage, the second half of the property prices or a slight adjustment, but the property prices are difficult to fall for 4 reasons, including capital, Home-led, credit norms and domestic inflows.

The property market rose rapidly this year. The Property and Valuation Department showed that property prices rose by 8.4% in the first five months of this year, up by 20.8% year-on-year.

Now the “cattle three” stage is time to return

Huang Jianyou, chairman of the AP Group, said that the current market property has a small bubble, in the “cattle three” stage, the first half of the property prices have accumulated a certain increase, The market is time to “return”, it is expected in the third quarter the property market will have a slight adjustment, “the second half of the property market theme is roughly trading sparse, high-priced leather.”

Whether it will repeat the situation in which property prices plummeted from 1997 to 2003. He believes that the medium and long term to see the property market is still in the bull market stage, the current property market and 97 years of different, it is difficult to repeat the year crash situation, because there are 4 points.

Huang Jianye that the current market capital adequacy, the total deposit of the Hong Kong banking system nearly 12 trillion yuan, compared to 97 years only about 2 trillion yuan, adequate liquidity to support asset prices; In addition, 97 speculators dominate the market, In recent years, the Government launched a hot strokes, including additional stamp duty, double stamp duty, etc., has made speculators extinct, home ownership of the property market, the property market has been healthier than the year.

6 into the property owners for the property market defense strong

In addition, the mainland funds have supported a major element of the property market in Hong Kong, from the mainland in recent years to sweep goods, housing prices high enough to vote, they are very confident of the property market, examples of HNA to 27.2 billion high bid for Kai Tak 4 land , Longguang Real Estate (03380) and KWG (01813) have invested more than $ 16.8 billion in Ap Lei Chau Residential Land to create a new residential land premium in Hong Kong, together with the strong demand for rigid housing in Hong Kong and the need for bank credit, The ratio of buyers’ borrowing is lower than that of 1997, and 6% of the owners have been given off property, and the defensive power is strong.

However, he also reminded the property market is not only rise in the myth, there are several risk factors to pay attention, which is more important is the United States poised to reduce the balance sheet (table) process, the current market estimates the US Federal Reserve’s fastest 9 Month start table. He said that the United States since 2008 QE (quantitative easing), printed about three times the silver paper, capital flows into the world’s first-tier cities, Hong Kong property prices and thus benefit greatly increased, if the United States to start the table, means that funds return The US market, the stock market and the property market will constitute an impact, the extent of the impact will depend on the speed and quantity of the table.