Mainland property market within three years of fear of adjustment

In the next few years, China will continue to leverage, even if the current liquidity is still abundant, but the credit cycle has reached a turning point, then the potential will be slowly reduced, the next two to the next two years, Three years the mainland property market or adjustment.

He said that last year China’s top 50 cities in the city’s residential market value is equivalent to 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), higher than Japan in 1990, the United States ○ six years when the property market bubble on the verge of blasting Of the two hundred and seventy percent, if the unfinished property is also calculated into the ratio I am afraid to reach four hundred percent.

On the other hand, China’s gross money supply (M2) increased by $ 19 trillion in eight years, and even the United States, Japan and the euro area are far behind. China’s property market is behind the national hot money flow, first-tier cities out of pressure to suppress property prices, purchasing power to fought second-tier cities, second-tier cities were suppressed to the third-tier cities.

Tighten liquidity to panic

Tao Dong also stressed that the economy, credit, real estate, stock markets have a period of ups and downs, although the current liquidity is extremely abundant, the authorities in the future control of the property market will be some swing, so that the adjustment is indeed difficult to predict the time, but the trend is clearly towards the adjustment , Like ○ five to six years, the market knows the US property market will be, but do not know the time and fuse.

He also said that the central sentence of “the house is used to live, not used to fry”, it is the Chinese credit cycle to tighten the inflection point, liquidity will slowly dry up, like a warm boiled frog. In the past developed countries to rely on the policy is often smooth and slow start the policy, then there was unknown market events, improper handling will make the lever to become rapid, triggering market panic.

Tao Dong said that state-owned enterprises occupy a lot of important monopoly of the industry, but do not think to improve productivity, do not think of innovation, stifling more competitive enterprises, dragging the hind legs of China’s economic development.