13/10/2017-7

The global financial crisis is the most explosive

Hong Kong stocks and the property market continued to flourish, but Nomura Securities published a report that according to the bank’s risk early warning system, Hong Kong for the world’s 32 economies in the outbreak of the highest financial crisis in the region, 60 early warning indicators, 52 lit red , The situation is more serious than the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

Fighting Crisis Fighting refers to Hong Kong as the highest risk region in the global financial crisis, which is more serious than the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

In fact, Credit Suisse Asia Pacific Private Bank Greater China Vice Chairman Tao Dong interviewed, when the mainland property market fell, the Hong Kong property market will be a real decline, due to the recent significant increase in Hong Kong property market leverage, coupled with the implementation of Hong Kong linked exchange rate system, Can not offset the shock through currency devaluation, Hong Kong property prices will fall even worse than the mainland.

Nomura: China is not out of danger

Nomura develops early warning indicators based on the ratio of corporate and household debt to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio, corporate and household debt ratios, real effective exchange rates, inflation-adjusted real property prices and stock prices.

Last year, Nomura had published similar reports, referring to Asia is the highest crisis in the financial crisis, especially China and Hong Kong. However, the bank’s latest report shows that Hong Kong is the most outbreak of the financial crisis, because the actual effective exchange rate in Hong Kong, corporate and family debt ratio is much higher than the long-term average, due to the Hong Kong dollar and the dollar linked to the problem because of the United States to speed up Canada The pace or the dollar is getting worse.

Nomura also pointed out that although China’s early warning indicators of the number of bright police from 41 to 40, for the first time since a three-year reduction, but the risk is still out of danger, if unable to further solve the property market and excess credit, it will be difficult to curb the economy Down.

Tao Dong said that when the mainland property market fell, the Hong Kong property market will form a real decline, but the adjustment of fear is quite strong, than the mainland will fall more hurt on the grounds that the recent gains in Hong Kong property market significantly improved, especially the weakest group, Hong Kong dollar and the dollar linked to the mainland through the devaluation of the renminbi deprecated part of the impact of falling asset prices, the use of the euro is not through the currency devaluation to ease the impact of the debt crisis, “negative teaching materials.”

Tao Dong and frankly, the so-called “rigid demand” property market is “false concept” on the grounds that demand can be unlimited concept. He said that the real need to observe is the “effective demand”, that is, how many people can afford now, Moreover, the “rigid demand” there are some people willing to wait for such a demand or because the property market cycle and disappear.

Lei Xianda: the impact of the property market adjustment

In view of the purchasing power of the general public, the Hong Kong property prices are still too high today. Moreover, the large-scale adjustment of the property market is often triggered by the external factors that are difficult to estimate, so he will not predict Whether the future property market is easy to rise or when the peak, the only sure is that Hong Kong’s low interest environment will change, the Government to actively increase the supply of housing, and Hong Kong is a free economy market, funds are free access, the property market if the significant adjustment to Hong Kong The financial system and the economy will certainly bring impact.

However, senior financial expert Lin Yiming bluntly said, “At present, there is a problem with the macro economy, and the risk of financial crisis in Hong Kong is more likely to be the lowest in the past 20 years.” He analyzed that although there was an opportunity to raise Hong Kong property prices , But because the speculative atmosphere of the property market is far less than the Asian financial risk in 1997, the real home buyers have a certain psychological preparation for the interest rate, property prices from the high slightly callback but favorable to the healthy development of the property market.

Lin Yiming: Hong Kong stocks bubble is not serious

Lin Yiming said that both the valuation of Hong Kong stocks and the degree of participation of retail investors were less than five years before the Hong Kong stock market era and the financial crisis in 2008, so it was difficult to say that Hong Kong stocks had a serious bubble.

Wen Gangcheng, a prime manager of the China Investment Fund, also believes that investors are not worried about the financial crisis in Hong Kong. He said that property prices in Hong Kong in the next period of time down three into not surprising, but in Hong Kong people’s actual home needs support, the Hong Kong property market is not a big chance of a comprehensive gap, and the property market callback is not enough to bring the impact of the financial system. He added that the current price-earnings ratio of Hong Kong stocks is not high, the market callback has become a low-capital opportunities, the stock market bubble risk is not big.