Mainland retail sales rose 8.6% less than expected last month. Double 11 extended mass consumption Industrial and solid investment performance
China’s National Bureau of Statistics released October economic data, in which industrial value added and fixed asset investment both beat market expectations; but the total retail sales of consumer goods was unexpectedly worse than market expectations, only 8.6%. The National Bureau of Statistics said that the Sino-US trade war has limited impact on the overall economy, but acknowledged that there are many external uncertainties, which makes it difficult for SMEs and private enterprises to operate.
National Bureau of Statistics: The economy is facing downward pressure
The National Bureau of Statistics announced that in October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.9% year-on-year, which is expected to increase by 5.8%, up 0.48% month-on-month; the first 10 months will increase by 6.4% year-on-year, with the first 9 months. Flat, slightly better than the market is expected to increase by 6.3%. In addition, power generation in October was 533 billion kWh, up 4.8% year-on-year; power generation in the first 10 months was 5.58 trillion kWh, up 7.2% year-on-year.
As for the national fixed investment, the first 10 months totaled 54.76 trillion yuan (RMB. The same below), up 5.7% year-on-year, surpassing the market’s expected 5.5% growth rate, and the growth rate also rose 0.3 percentage points from the first September. On a monthly basis, fixed asset investment rose by 0.44% in October.
Although the industrial and solid investment wins the market, the retail data is worse than expected. In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6% in nominal terms, 0.6 percentage points lower than the market expectation of 9.2%. In the first 10 months, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 30.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, which was also slightly worse than the expected increase of 9.3%. The National Bureau of Management believes that it is subject to factors such as the “Double 11” shopping festival, which has led to a delay in consumption.
The National Bureau of Statistics explained that the economic operation in October was generally stable and stable, and the long-term trend of the national economy has not changed. However, the external instability and uncertainties are still recognized, and the economic operation is still facing downward pressure.
Commodity price bumps
Asked about the impact of the Sino-US trade war, Liu Aihua, spokesperson of the State Administration of the United States, said that from the current data, Sino-US trade friction has limited impact on the overall economy, but the growth momentum of the world economy and trade has weakened, and the international financial market is turbulent. The high price fluctuations of bulk commodities and the long-term structural contradictions accumulated in the Mainland have made it difficult for SMEs and private enterprises to operate. Therefore, the next step is to strengthen domestic demand and complete the economic development goals for the whole year.
Liu Aihua continued that the inflation rate and fiscal deficit rate in the Mainland are at a low level, the government debt ratio is reasonable, and foreign exchange reserves are sufficient. Therefore, there is a large space for implementing macro policies, which will help China to release its long-term advantages and potential.
In addition to industrial and commercial investment, the growth rate of real estate sales in the first 10 months fell. In the first 10 months, the sales volume of commercial housing was 11.59 trillion yuan, up 12.5% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped 0.8 percentage points from the first nine months, of which residential sales increased by 15% and office buildings fell by 6.5%.