Agents expect the price of the property to be inserted into the next year. High-power: investors look down on the house.
The property market was affected by negative news, and the high position quickly declined. The two local leading real estate agents, Zhongyuan Real Estate and Midland Real Estate, were all bearish on the property market trend next year. Zhongyuan Real Estate’s property price will drop from about 15% in July this year, and Midland Real Estate estimates that property prices will fall by about 10% next year. Nano-units and fine-priced buildings have the opportunity to be further pressured, and the worst case may be lowered. 15%. Colliers International conducts investment intention surveys with developers, institutions and family investors. More than half of the respondents estimate that property prices will fall by 5% to 15% next year.
Huang Weixiong, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Centaline Property Asia Pacific, pointed out that due to the negative news of the new housing policy announced by the government in June and the subsequent Sino-US trade war, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is very strong, second-hand trading is in a frozen position, and the first-hand sales are also Significant cooling, so that property prices will be adjusted back in July.
Central Plains: CCL falls back to 160 levels
Huang Weixiong said that the property market’s decline began in the third quarter of this year. Due to uncertainties next year, it is believed that the trade war will continue to affect the global economy. Hong Kong is also difficult to spare. He expects the decline in property prices to continue until the first quarter of next year. The narrow range is rampant, and the price of the building is expected to fall by about 15% from the high level. He pointed out that the Central Plains City Leading Index (CCL), which reflects the trend of second-hand residential property market in major housing estates, was 188.64 this year and is expected to fall to about 160 levels, a drop of about 15%. He predicted that the number of second-hand items in the year of 2019 will be about 40,000, amounting to about 350 billion yuan, which is similar to this year. The pace of development of developers is not slowing down. It is expected that purchasing power will still tend to be in the first-hand market. 20,000 cases, the amount is about 300 billion yuan.
Midland: Can stop falling in the coming year
Bu Shaoming, chief executive of the Midland Real Estate Department, said that the basic factors of the property market in Hong Kong remain unchanged. The pace of interest rate hikes in the United States is expected to slow down in 2019. There is no room for local property prices to plummet. If the trade war is no longer worse, the property price in 2019 will be reduced. The adjustment is expected to be less than 10%, but the nano-units and fine-priced buildings may fall by 15%. He said that if the trade war is slowed down or the dispute is resolved, the property price is expected to return to the right track before the Lunar New Year, otherwise it will wait until next year to terminate the decline.
Colliers International recently released the “2018 Hong Kong Investor Survey Report", which has interviewed more than 70 Hong Kong-based developers, institutional investors and family companies. The investors in this batch expect more adjustments in the residential market. 55% of respondents believe that residential prices will fall by 5% to 15% next year, and only 2% of respondents expect an increase.
Industry: Developers are also in crisis
Shi Feng, director of Colliers International (Hong Kong) Research and Consulting Department, said that investors generally bearish on the housing market in Hong Kong next year, especially nano-stores will bear the brunt and the most stress; 75% of investors believe that the impact of Sino-US trade war on the property market has been Cover other negative factors, including interest rate hikes and economic factors. At present, the property market is quiet, investors are waiting for the property market adjustment cycle to end, and then put into the market.
On the other hand, Zeng Huanping, managing director of Jones Lang LaSalle, who predicted that the last year’s property price would fall by 30%, said that Hong Kong’s debt level and interest rate remained at a low level. It is estimated that property prices will “explode or slam" It is easy to fall, but he pointed out that the developer’s offer price is gradually close to the market price, reflecting that “developers also have a certain crisis in the market. It is better to set a reasonable price to clear the goods as soon as possible." If developers take the lead in price reduction, the secondary industry will mainly If the unit is sold, it will be reduced to a price lower than the new price.