DBS estimates difficult double-digit price increases this year

Hong Kong’s economic performance has stabilized and property prices have shaken the ceiling. DBS Vickers (Hong Kong) is expecting a gradual slowdown in residential and office growth this year, while the retail and hospitality sectors continued their recovery. Qiu Zhuowen, director of the bank’s research department and real estate analyst in Hong Kong, said there was already some sign of slowdown in property prices in the second half of last year. Although the economy is good, the unemployment rate is low and the stock market is prosperous, the property prices have been rising continuously For many years, the burden ratio of the mortgage supply has been deteriorating. I believe there is no more double-digit increase in property prices this year.

Qiu Zhuo Wen believes that unless the black swan incident, or the property market this year will not appear too much adjustment. The government extended the duty-based stamp duty (DSD) floor renewal period from six months to 12 months, driving the sale of medium-sized flats. It is expected that there will be medium-sized flats increase in medium flats prices this year. However, Reserved, expected by the above policy, property prices can be flat has been pretty good. If the property market is under attack, we will first reflect on the property prices.

Given the limited land supply in Hong Kong and keen competition for buying land, Yau Chok Man pointed out that it is more difficult for developers to replenish soil storage. As a result, the number of developers focused on the gross profit margin and maximized the gross profit as far as possible.

Property stocks preferred Xindi

In the past six months, the government changed its mind from “spicy recruit” to adjusting the property market by increasing supply. In the meantime, developers are aggressively increasing their land reserves and prefer to bid on higher-amount land plots in a joint venture mode. This year this situation will continue. The bank preferred Xindi (00016), due to its share price discount of more than 40% compared with NAV, the expected dividend yield of over 3.5%, and selling the ideal selling.

Asked when Hong Kong will raise the prime rate (P), he said that assuming that the ratio of mortgage repayments remains unchanged, if Hong Kong hiked 50 pips to 75 pips this year, property prices would be adjusted by 5% -8%. However, There is still a large gap between the HIBOR and the best lending rate. I believe there is not much chance of raising the best lending rate in the short term.