13/7/2018-6

Property prices will slow down in the second half of the year

In the first half of 2018, the property market undertook the 2017 trend, and property prices continued to rise. Last year, the overall price of property rose by 15%. In the first half of 2018, the trend was even more fierce. In just half a year, it rose by 13%!

In the middle of June, the government has been continually releasing the wind and will make a move in the short term. After that, the government will officially announce the new housing policy of the “Three Objectives and Six Measures" at the end of June.

These new measures clearly classify the demand and implement parallel dual-track public and private housing. First, in order to make it easier for low- and middle-income families to get on the train, the Government has rezoned some of the land originally intended for private housing to public or subsidized housing land to increase the supply of public housing.

In addition, in order to make the subsidized sale of housing more affordable, it was decided to revise the relevant pricing policy, no longer linked to the market price, and the median monthly income of non-owner households was changed to 39,500 yuan. The unit price was changed into an assessment. 50% off market value. The above measures are obviously to divide the public and private property market clearly, and the two tracks are parallel, avoiding overlapping and raising the price of subsidized housing.

Vacant tax passed on buyers, private property prices are hard to fall

The reduction in land for private housing, coupled with the pressure of developers to face vacant taxes, may be favoured by some units in the future. The vacant tax will definitely be the wool out of the sheep and the cost will be passed on to new buyers. The evolution of the property market in the private property market is even more ups and downs.

Having said that, the author believes that the transaction volume in the second half of the year will remain, and the property price will slow down slightly in the second half of the year. The reasons include: First, the property price is too fast in the first half of the year. After the move, I believe developers and second-hand owners are pricing. It will be more prudent and restrained; secondly, the Sino-US trade war will have a resistance to the economy; then, Hong Kong’s interest rate is brewing up, and these factors have become obstacles to rising property prices in the second half of the year. On the whole, the author believes that property prices will continue to rise in the second half of the year, but the increase will be significantly slowed down, and it is expected that it will surpass 5%.