The best time for the Star Show property market has passed

The stock market has dropped significantly in recent days. Will the property market become the next disaster-stricken area? After many big banks such as CITIC Lyon and Bank of Communications International have been pessimistic about the Hong Kong property market, Hong Kong real estate industry analyst Ching Cheo-wen of DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Research Department is also blunt, the best time for property prices this year has passed.

The impact of the trade war is greater than the interest rate hike

He also believes that the impact of Sino-US trade disputes on the property market is greater than the interest rate hike. The reason is that the property market has fallen sharply in the past, which is caused by economic problems and financial market fluctuations. It remains to be seen whether the current Sino-US trade disputes and external economic instability will affect the owners’ need to reduce their holdings to cash out and trigger a sharp drop in property prices in Hong Kong.

Real estate stocks in Hong Kong have accumulated a lot of declines recently. Among them, Henderson Land (00012) shares fell 1.14% to 38.7 yuan yesterday, a 52-week low; Cheung Kong Group (01113) and Sino Land (00083) also fell 2.13% and 1.39%; Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) and New World Development (00017) fell 0.35% and 1.3% respectively.

In fact, the big bank has already warned that property prices in Hong Kong are facing a sharp decline. CITIC Lyon published a research report last month, arguing that Hong Kong’s property market is facing the biggest challenge in 15 years, because the factors that have led to the adjustment of Hong Kong’s property market in the past three times: interest rate hikes, slowing economic growth and depreciation of the renminbi are present at the same time, and the future is expected. Residential property prices will fall by 15% in 12 months. Bank of Communications International also believes that the trend of property stocks has already reflected that the property market will be adjusted in the past few months. It is not surprising that the price will fall by 15% in the next few months.