Land supply is difficult to rely on one or two options
Last year’s Policy Address put forward a series of policies on land and housing supply. The Land Supply Task Force has also submitted a report. Land and housing issues have become the top priority of Hong Kong society. As far as the Land and Housing Policy in the Policy Address is concerned, it can be said that there is “no big surprise” and “but it remains to be seen.”
The author agrees with the government’s starting point. It is only that many policies require long-term planning. The government must have the determination, timetable and policy support to continue to implement it. Despite the market volatility in the coming months, in the long run, all types of land supply in Hong Kong are insufficient. Therefore, there must be one or two options for “multi-faceted” schemes.
As far as land and housing supply is concerned, the supply of 93,000 people in a private building in the next three to four years is believed to be up to standard. It is estimated that future government land sales will slow down until there is a clear long-term land policy. Medium- and long-term developments such as the Northwest New Territories are necessary, but it involves balancing the interests of stakeholders. It is recommended that the government establish a timetable as soon as possible and begin consultation and planning to change land use as soon as possible.
The author expects that the supply of housing after 2022 is a “big question mark”. The medium and long-term supply side will see when new land will be put in place. Because many proposals and developments involve changing land use or balancing stakeholder interests, it may not be able to release such land for a short time. The author hopes that the government can set up a task force or committee to maintain long-term implementation. Apart from residential areas, other places such as commercial, logistics and leisure land are not sufficient. The land supply plan must be speeded up and implemented.
The Green Home and First Pilot Scheme is also a good concept, but the quantity is sufficient. Due to the high demand for public housing and grassroots, the Waiting List is very long. The author proposes to review all the “home ownership ladders” to avoid the impact of the planned slowdown on the private property market. The author agrees that Hong Kong should increase the pace of Hong Kong people’s home ownership. However, the Government should fully consider the needs of different sectors of the community and examine the public housing and HOS policies, income restrictions and waiting time. If there is too much supply of Hong Kong-funded housing, there is an opportunity to influence the market for first-time passengers in private flats. In addition, if the position of the first car on the car is remote and limited by the resale period, the relevant second-hand market may be less active and reduce the circulation.
Reclamation and artificial islands, East Lantau and brownfields also need to be considered. When the development of the Lantau in the Middle East has certain geographical advantages and the concept of “Dawan District”, this is a long-term plan. I hope the Government can provide a timetable. Brownfield is a big problem. It is not easy to solve it comprehensively. On the one hand, there are many land stakeholders, on the other hand, it is necessary to attract land occupants to move out, and it involves certain compensation or subsidy issues.
The reclamation and artificial island options are more desirable and feasible. The reclamation of non-natural coastlines outside the Victoria Harbour and the construction of artificial islands in the central waters will reduce the compensation problem and reduce the number of stakeholders. Will be faster than the other options. In addition, reclamation and artificial islands are easier to obtain a large amount of land. In the future, new towns may be more comprehensive in planning. However, different feasibility studies, technical assessments and environmental assessment reports should be conducted before the implementation of the government to understand the feasibility.
As far as the land price in Hong Kong in 2019 is concerned, the author predicts that the land price will be adjusted downward by about 5 to 10% in the next 12 months. It is estimated that the land sales revenue in the 2018/19 fiscal year will be about 100 billion to 110 billion yuan, which is estimated to be 150 billion yuan last year. Low, mainly due to slow land sales and changes in market conditions in the second half of 2018. The Sino-US trade disputes and the economic performance factors of Hong Kong are also very important. The interest rate hike will have some pressure on developers to sell their flats and the cost of development. I believe that developers are still “counting” and will not be “too aggressive” in future land purchase bids. “.”