It is expected that Dawan District will complete the transformation within 15 years. DBS is optimistic about financial services and TMT.
The “Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Dawan District Development Plan” was launched in February this year to provide direction for urban development in the Bay Area. The Dawan District Research released by DBS Bank (Hong Kong) yesterday believes that in the future, the Greater Bay Area will gradually develop into a service-oriented economy. The compound annual growth rate from 2017 to 2030 may far exceed 5.3%. It is expected that this transformation will be less than 15 years, and the five industries of new energy vehicles, smart home, online advertising, medical and insurance will be the highlights of the region’s growth.
Hong Kong Commercial Daily reporter Qiu Yuanyuan
Wu Shuyan, head of research at DBS Hong Kong and the Mainland, said that there was a voice in the early days that the Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau Bay Area was only a “new bottle of old wine”, but the Bay Area Planning Outline gave the market a strong shot, especially to Hong Kong and Guangzhou. The role of the big city is more important. She continued that the recent Sino-US trade friction may have an impact on the import and export industry in Guangdong Province in the short term, but in the medium and long term, the government has also accelerated the development of the Bay Area and is determined to accelerate the industrial transformation of the Bay Area.
According to the study, San Francisco Bay Area and Tokyo Bay Area have spent more than 30 years of transformation and upgrading, which has resulted in a service-oriented economy. Shanghai has been used for 15 years. In the Greater Bay Area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau, if Hong Kong and Macao are excluded, the service industry’s GDP (gross domestic product) ratio is only 57%, and the manufacturing industry is still large, and the industry’s transformation and upgrading also benefit from the policy dividend. As time goes by, the bank expects the proportion of services to increase to 66% in 2030.
New energy automotive materials in the region are developing rapidly
The bank expects the transformation of the Greater Bay Area to be less than 15 years. The two major areas of financial services and TMT (technology, media and telecommunications) will be important growth engines, and the top five industries with faster economic growth in the future will be new energy sources. Automotive, smart home, online advertising, medical industry and insurance industry. The financial industry, real estate and environmental protection related industries will become the three fastest emerging industries in Dawan District.
As for the real estate industry, which is more concerned by the public, Wu believes that the future residential market in the Bay Area will always be under the shadow of macroeconomic regulation and control, and the chances of rising property prices are limited. She explained that if the property price is high, it will be unfavorable for domestic and foreign talent inflows, so the price increase will not be too fast. However, she is optimistic about the prospects of office buildings in the region, as the economy may shift to the service industry, and office supply may be under-supplied in the next 5 to 10 years.
Insurance premiums or 15% annual compound growth
DBS Hong Kong and Mainland Banking and Insurance Industry Analyst Shi Gengyu expects that the insurance premium income of the insurance industry in the region will record a compound annual growth of more than 15% by 2030, and the two places are negotiating on “Insurance” and will be insurance. The industry brings growth opportunities. He is also optimistic about the P2P industry. He believes that the early years were too fast due to lack of standards. I believe that through the government’s restrictions and supervision in recent years, the industry will have a healthy development trend in the future.
Bay Area’s industrial transformation “survival of the fittest”, DBS Hong Kong and mainland telecommunications and technology industry analyst Tan Zihong said that with the upgrading of manufacturing industry in the region, it is estimated that the proportion of high-end manufacturing will increase from the current 40% to 2030 50%, while manufacturing with lower technology content may move to other parts of Guangdong Province.
Wu Shuyan pointed out that the main challenges in the Bay Area will be policy and administrative obstacles. There is no culture in the region to bear long-term investment risks, and the current education system is not particularly encouraged to innovate.