China and the United States cut interest rates during the year, and the Hong Kong stock market surged 613 points to the biggest one-day rise in 5 months. The 24.5 billion yuan funded the two major sectors of Chinese finance and domestic consumption. Analysis of the Hong Kong stocks initially counterattacked 27,758 points of bull and bear line, the trend also depends on whether China and the United States can promote peace talks.
In the comprehensive investment community, the four factors will support the Hong Kong stocks to continue to rebound in the short-term, including: (1) Chinese and US officials each suggest that there is room for water release, which will facilitate the return of funds to the stock market; (2) Foreign capital swept into A shares for 5 consecutive days, involving RMB 17.5 billion. In the Yuan Renminbi, the risk appetite has signs of picking up; (3) China and the United States have not banned the details of the list, and the United States has postponed tariffs on Chinese goods; (4) It is expected that the central government will support economic measures.
4 good strength support 613 points 5 months the most powerful
The external investment atmosphere continued to improve. US stocks rose more than 200 points in the early part of the day and moved to 6 consecutive rises. At 0:00 am, the night was reported at 27,593 points, up 124 points. Tencent (00700)’s American Depositary Receipt (ADR) was quoted at 344 yuan, which was 1 yuan higher than the closing price of 343 yuan in Hong Kong yesterday. The overall ADR reflected that the Hang Seng Index rose 25 points.
The People’s Bank of China said last week that there is a lot of room to adjust monetary measures. It also implies that the renminbi is no longer insisting on “guarantee 7” against the US dollar. The offshore renminbi has fallen below the 6.96 mark yesterday, and the onshore renminbi has also hit a new half-year low. In addition, the latest interest rate futures show that the US Federal Reserve’s rate of interest rate cuts before the end of this year reached 98.2%.
Li Zhenhao, senior investment strategist at DBS Hong Kong Investment Director’s Office, analyzed that there is no relationship between interest rate cuts and Sino-US friction. Under the premise that Sino-US relations are not clear, the stock market will not turn completely because of interest rate cuts. However, he noticed that the market began to expect good news from the two countries. For example, after the official media used the words “do not presuppose words” at the end of last month, the tone was not tough, and the policy did not have details, which seemed to create space for China and the United States. The two sides met (see separate article – the reasons behind the funds to enter the city to dismantle).
G20 results or extreme star show recommended high interest defense
Li Zhenhao pointed out that there will be a batch of funds in the short-term, “Bo Zhongmei has good news” and enter the market early, but the G20 meeting may be extremely extreme. It is not the time to deploy long-term, investment strategy recommendations continue to focus on defensive categories, including high interest rates, housing Non-cyclical categories such as funds and food stocks.
China-funded brokerage CCB International expects that Hong Kong stocks will show a “M-shaped” pattern this year, moving around a large range of 24,000 to 30,000. Zhao Wenli, managing director and chief strategist of the securities research department of the bank, considered the slowdown of the US economy and the weakening of the renminbi against the US dollar. It is expected that the Hong Kong stock P/E ratio will drop from the current 10.5 times to about 9 times, which is the valuation of the past five years. Lower limit.
The focus of the mainland’s economic structure is gradually shifting to domestic consumption. Zhao Wenli prefers industries that are supported by national policies, such as automobiles, home appliances, information technology and travel concept stocks. It is expected that the measures will be stabilized in the second half of the year and will benefit the medium and long-term stock market atmosphere. Hong Kong stocks closed at 27,78 points yesterday, up 613 points, and the market turnover surged 37% to 91.9 billion yuan.