14/11/2018-9

Jones Lang LaSalle’s residential price is down to 25% at the end of the 10-year uptrend.

The property market situation has reversed. Zeng Huanping, managing director of Jones Lang LaSalle, believes that the residential market has entered an adjustment period. It is estimated that the property price will fall by 15% by the end of 2019. If the Sino-US trade war continues to deteriorate, the worst case will fall by as much as 25%. It is recommended that the government relax some of the property market hot tricks. According to the data of the Lijiage Real Estate Research Department, the weighted average practical price of the 50 indicator housing estates in Hong Kong fell for 3 months, falling 3.5%, and the price fell below 15,000 yuan, a record low of nearly half a year.

Zeng Huanping pointed out that the property market has been rapidly reversed, and residential prices have started to fall in the past two months. Mainly due to factors such as the intensified trade war between China and the United States and stock market volatility, the market entry of left and right home buyers is considered. In recent years, Hong Kong’s real estate market has relied on mainland demand to support growth. The Sino-US trade war has intensified and will hit Hong Kong’s economy and the property market. The 10-year upsurge cycle of Hong Kong’s property market has come to an end and is entering an adjustment period. It is expected that residential prices will be before the end of 2019. Will fall by 15%. If the trade war worsens and the stock market continues to decline, the government will not withdraw from the property market, and the price of residential property will fall by 20% to 25%.

The decline in property prices is difficult to achieve in 1997 and 2008

Zeng Huanping said that the price of small and medium-sized residential buildings has tripled since the 2008 financial tsunami and surpassed the 1997 high of 63%. However, in the past two months, the top-down or second-hand market, the property market downlink signal is clear, although the first-hand price has not been seen, but the actual intention has been lower than the developer’s intention price three months ago.

However, he believes that the property market will not fall as fast as the two financial crises in 1997 and 2008. As the current level of borrowing is not high, the number of silver masters will not increase significantly.

He mentioned that the property market has entered a down cycle, and in addition to small and medium-sized housing, luxury homes have also been affected. “If you think that the Kowloon Station is a luxury mansion, you can see that the number of recent transactions has fallen sharply compared with the average price of the property. It is more difficult to use than the average residential building." The family is very happy, “the city is difficult to resell." Only the super-luxury mans that are rarely available, the value of which is like “ancient", the price of the property can be hard.

As property prices have started to fall, Zeng Huan-ping believes that the government should re-examine some measures to cool the property market as soon as possible. Otherwise, it will not only intensify the adjustment of property prices, but will also have a great impact on the local economy. He hopes that the Government will revoke the additional stamp duty (SSD) to enable some people who need to sell their flats to stockpile their goods so as not to lock up the “escape door" of the property market. At the same time, they should also review the ad valorem stamp duty (DSD) and relax the loan-to-value ratio. Accelerate residential circulation.

50 indicators housing price average 14774 half year low

According to the data of the Lijiage Real Estate Research Department, the weighted average price of the 50 indicator housing estates in Hong Kong in October 2018 was 14,774 yuan, a 1.6% drop from the 15016 yuan in September. It fell for three months and hit a new low of nearly half a year. In the past three months, the average practical price has fallen by 3.5% from the peak of $15,303 in July. The increase in property prices in the first 10 months of this year has also narrowed to 7.5%.