The sales target for the next year is expected to be lowered. The amount of sales in the building is likely to fall by 10%.
In recent months, domestic housing has been affected by factors such as regulation and macroeconomics. Sales have slowed significantly. The market predicts that domestic sales will fall by 10% next year. Coupled with the tightening of major financing channels for developers, a large number of debts will be concentrated next year. Upon expiration, developers face a significant increase in risk in liquidity and refinancing. The analysis expects that it is difficult for developers to set aggressive sales targets next year. It is not excluded that the target of a certain number of domestic houses will be lower than the sales figures for this year. In the market, the government will not further tighten control measures under the current conditions, and expects to relax the regulation slightly when there is a serious downturn in the industry.
In recent years, the demand for the property market in the Mainland has been booming. The sales of domestic real estate has been leaps and bounds since the beginning of 2016. It has not been affected by the control measures. However, since the fourth quarter of this year, the economic environment has deteriorated and the public interest in the property industry has shrunk. Signs of slowdown, the traditional peak season “Golden September and Silver 10″ eclipsed, in addition to the overall sales area fell, developers to buy land and property development investment is the first decline in the past two years, the prospects for sales of domestic housing sales is not optimistic.
Country Garden (02007) became the champion of insider sales with sales of 550.8 billion yuan last year. However, after the site accident occurred this year, sales slowed down noticeably.
The company started to set no sales targets this year. In the first 11 months, it recorded sales of 489.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.3% compared with the same period of last year. It reached 88.9% of the sales last year. It is doubtful whether it will grow in the whole year. Country Garden’s sales this month reached 61.06 billion yuan to catch up with last year’s results, while sales in the past three months were only 33.75 billion, 40.44 billion, 36.74 billion yuan.
Vanke Evergrande’s performance is more important than Country Garden
The other two major domestic giants, Vanke (02202) and Evergrande (03333), re-lead to Country Garden, with sales of 543.95 billion and 535.21 billion yuan in the first 11 months, both of which exceeded last year’s sales. However, under the deterioration of the market, Vanke Chairman Yu Liang requested to “live" as the company’s goal this year at the internal regular meeting in September this year. It is very important to emphasize the goal of returning funds to the company’s survival. After the news flows out, the industry will deepen. City’s worries. Yu Liang’s previous sketch said that after the Shenzhen Metro became a major investor in Vanke, it gave great support and showed that with Vanke’s ability, it can basically complete the return target of 630 billion yuan this year.
Standard & Poor’s: property prices will fall back
The Fitch report pointed out that mainland developers are likely to face more difficult market conditions next year. It is expected that domestic sales will fall by 5% to 10%. Standard & Poor’s pointed out that mainland property prices have peaked, and the decline may reach 5% next year, and the residential sales area will shrink by 3% to 7%.
Moody’s also said that the challenges of the domestic housing will increase next year. With the economic slowdown in the Mainland and the regulation of the property market continue, it is expected that the domestic sales will fall by about 5% next year.
Credit Suisse pointed out that according to the estimation of the sales price trend of domestic housing, mortgage and broad money supply (M2) growth this year, the mainland property market has shown signs of slowing down. If the control measures continue in the next year, the property price increase may slow down to 1.5%. Further dragged down real estate investment from a 7.5% increase to a rapid decline to 3.6%.