When Hong Kong stocks retreated to the bull-bear line (250 antennas, at 28205 on Friday), the news was reappeared.
The spread of Hong Kong-US spreads triggered the carry trade, which dragged the Hong Kong exchange market back and forth again after more than half a year. We will deepen the short-term pressure on Hong Kong stocks, and test the 27800 level in the short-term.
The investment community has pointed out that after the sharp rise of the market, positive factors have generally reflected that Hong Kong stocks have entered an adjustment period, and that the four key factors will lead this month. If the relevant factors continue to benefit, the HSI mid-line is still expected to challenge 30,000. .
The four key factors include: (1) the status of money received by the HKMA, (2) whether the “Study Conference" can be held as scheduled, (3) the performance of heavyweight Tencent (00700), and (4) the Fed’s monetary policy.
Received money several times last year, HSI is short-term soft
Hong Kong stocks fell on a large turnover last Friday, and the second largest decline in the year, reflecting the strong market, the short-term is not suitable. Statistics on last year’s data, after the HKMA began to receive money, Hong Kong stocks were weak in the short term (see table). For example, the Hang Seng Index fell 2% or 613 points within 5 trading days from April 12th.
Cheng Jiawei, chief analyst of Guoxin Securities (Hong Kong) macroeconomic market strategy, believes that the Hong Kong dollar’s “money" is mainly triggered by carry trades. The direct impact on the stock market is slight, but the Hang Seng Index has risen 9.2% this year. Or prompting the investment sentiment to cool down, the market is taking advantage of the callback, and it is expected that the HSI will be adjusted in depth this month, with a maximum of about 10% down as a reference, or about 26,500 points. The adjustment period will last for about 1 month. .
“The Sino-US trade dispute is expected to come to an end. The political good news has gradually subsided.
When the market returns to rationality, it will once again focus on the fundamentals. The industry with higher growth and higher profit will call back this year, such as 5G, brokerage and aviation stocks. ."
In fact, before the Hong Kong stocks entered the adjustment period, some funds have locked in profits on a small scale. Fang Weichang, head of China’s equity in Baring Hong Kong, said that Hong Kong stocks have recorded significant gains, and the market outlook should be adjusted. The funds have recently reduced their holdings from the pharmaceutical, technology, and consumer sectors to a small number of fast-moving shares and changed their shares to lagging stocks.
Expert: Optimum in the long-term line Looking at 30,000 at the end of the year
Zhong Xiaxia, senior fund manager of Allianz Investment, also revealed that some of its fund positions have risen to the target price of the bank. If there is no more potential increase after the assessment, it will not rule out the reduction of holdings. It also means that the market has roughly expected that China and the United States have the opportunity to reach trade. Agreement, investors need to be cautious in the market to take the relevant good news to implement and take back.
It is worth noting that the investment community is still optimistic about the long-term stocks of Hong Kong stocks. Fang Weichang analyzed that the market has not seen major negative factors, and factors such as China’s stimulus policies, interest rates, and foreign investment in the market are still positive, and the market outlook can be supported. Cheng Jiawei also expects that the Hang Seng Index will go up in the whole year and see 30,000 points at the end of the year. However, this year’s volatility is relatively large, or between 27,000 and 30,000 points. Therefore, in addition to grasping the timing of the adjustment, investors must also know how to get the right time. Lee, and beware of “grey rhinoceros" and “black swan".
The Hang Seng Index plunged 551 points last Friday, closing at 28,228 points, down 583 points in the whole week; the overall performance of the overall Hong Kong stocks blue-chip American Depositary Receipt (ADR), equivalent to the Hang Seng Index opened 87 points lower today.