Unity Hong Kong Fund worried about 4 years after the housing supply fell

The Solidarity Hong Kong Fund (the Foundation) published a new report on the Land and Housing Policy Initiative. The report analysis shows that if measures are not taken as soon as possible, the supply of public and private housing in Hong Kong will face a cliff-like approach. The average waiting time for public housing in 3 years will exceed the 6-year mark, and the supply of private housing in 2023 will fall by nearly 40% from 2018.

In order to alleviate the current housing dilemma, the Foundation recommends that the Hong Kong Government adopt a expedient policy to solve the short-term and urgent needs. First, the wall will be loosened and the development of 25 “rezoning sites” will be accelerated. Secondly, the thinking will be broadened and the Sai Kung 14 will be considered. The township has a total of 64 hectares of “undivided hillsides”, providing about 20,000 to 30,000 residential units. Third, as soon as possible, 110 hectares of “brown land” and 150 hectares of private New Territories agricultural land conversion work will be carried out.

The average waiting time for public housing in 3 years is more than 6 years

In the latest “Long-term Housing Strategy” annual progress report, the Hong Kong Government announced that it will convert the proportion of newly-built public-private housing units to six-to-four. The supply target for private residential units will be lowered by an average of 18,000 people per year. To 13500 people. The report believes that in the case that the supply target of the total housing units has not increased, the revision of the public-private ratio is only a zero-sum game of the East China West, which may be lost.

According to the report, due to the significant decline in the construction of the superstructure project last year and the significant reduction in the supply of reclaimed land for private housing, it is estimated that the average annual number of private residential units will be approximately 18,500 in the five years from 2019 to 2023, up to 2023. It will be sharply reduced to 13,300, which is nearly 40% lower than the 2018 level.

Although the “Long Strategy” will increase the public housing supply target from 28,000 units to 31,500 units per year, the Foundation report predicts that the expected completion of public housing in the next four financial years will only be 18,300 units per year, far below The long-term policy supply target is about 42%; in the fiscal year 2022/23, the completion amount will drop to 14500 units in a cliff-like manner. For the 10 fiscal years ending 2019/20 to 2028/29, the report predicts a cumulative shortage of at least 85,000 people in public housing supply. In the next three years, the average waiting time for public housing applicants will increase from the current 5.5 years to over 6 years.

It is advisable to rezone “Brown Land” as soon as possible.

In addition, the Government has adopted three short-term and medium-term proposals of the Land Supply Task Force. The Foundation has called on the Government to take the initiative to launch the relevant 110 hectares of “brown land” and 150 hectares of private New Territories agricultural land rezoning work as soon as possible and announce detailed work plans. Timetable, and release a new batch of land use sites with potential for conversion as soon as possible.

Ye Wenzhao, Head of Land and Housing Research, Unite Hong Kong Fund, pointed out that in the foreseeable future, there will be a cliff-like decline in the supply of public and private housing. Not only will “on the train” become more and more difficult, but the waiting time for public housing will also hit a new high, making Hong Kong people live. The quality is greatly dragged down.