Q1 data exhibition economic potential and resilience

The National Bureau of Statistics released China’s GDP data for the first quarter of this year. According to preliminary calculations, the gross domestic product in the first quarter was 1,13,433.3 billion yuan, which was 6.4% year-on-year at comparable prices, which was flat compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Experts believe that China’s GDP in the first quarter of this year once again proves the potential and resilience of the Chinese economy, thanks to a series of monetary policies and fiscal policies. So far, the effects of the policy have not been fully released, so China’s economic growth may still rise slightly. However, China’s economic stimulus policy should not continue to increase, and the future policy focus is more likely to stabilize the current situation, further strengthen the supply-side reform, and further adjust the economic structure, especially toward high-quality development goals. go ahead.

Counter-cyclical effects

In the first quarter of this year, China’s GDP exceeded expectations. Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said in an interview with this newspaper that China’s GDP in the first quarter of this year once again proved the potential and resilience of the Chinese economy. From the perspective of policy regulation, since the third quarter of 2018, countercyclical regulation has become the main tone of China’s macroeconomic regulation and control, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, and investment policy all moving in a more positive direction. In particular, fiscal policy is unprecedented in strength. Although the deficit rate has not increased by more than 3%, the policies such as tax cuts, fee reductions, fiscal surpluses, and government spending cuts are not available in the past. In terms of monetary policy, the five-time RRR cuts made the liquidity ample.

From the external environment, Lian Ping said that the negotiations between China and the United States are still going on, and it seems that it is getting closer and closer to the goal of negotiation. This has caused the market to change its situation in the past. Well, risk appetite will rise. These will drive the economic operation. Therefore, we can see that in terms of economic data, exports are more than expected, and consumption, investment, and especially real estate investment are also exceeding expectations.

Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Securities, said in an interview with this newspaper that there are two main reasons for GDP exceeding expectations. The first is that the stock market is very active, and the tertiary industry itself has strong anti-cyclical ability. From the perspective of GDP data calculation, the trading volume of the stock market exceeding one trillion has a very positive impact on GDP, plus In the first quarter, the growth rate of credit supply was also relatively fast, which made the performance of the tertiary industry relatively good. Second, the performance of the secondary industry also exceeded expectations, such as PMI data and exports in January and March exceeded expectations.

After the second quarter, there may still be a slight increase

From last year’s GDP data, the economic growth rate in the first quarter of last year was 6.8%, 6.7% in the second quarter, 6.5% in the third quarter, and 6.4% in the fourth quarter. Even if the data for the first quarter of this year exceeded expectations, it was only the same as that of the fourth quarter of last year. It did not reverse the basic trend of softening quarter by quarter since last year. So what will happen to the subsequent development of the Chinese economy?

Lian Ping believes that from the current economic situation, considering that the policy will be promoted in the second half of 2018, it is now the period of policy effects, but the policy effect has not been fully released. Therefore, it is expected that the economic growth rate will increase slightly after the second quarter of this year. In terms of development potential, the current structural adjustment and consumption demand growth are relatively stable. China’s urbanization level is still not high, and the pace is still accelerating. The real estate situation confirms that the promotion of urbanization has made the Chinese economy still have a lot of room for development. .

The future policy will be to stabilize the current situation.

Of course, Lian Ping said that the Chinese economy still faces many uncertainties. The most important point is that the growth of the world economy this year may be worse than last year. Under the current situation of China’s policy, it is impossible to further increase monetary policy and relax. The possibility of lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates is relatively small. The next step is only some structural adjustments. Future policies are more likely to stabilize the current situation, to further power supply-side reforms, and to further adjust the economic structure, especially toward high-quality development goals.

The political commissar of Lu believes that China’s goal this year is not to exceed the data at the end of last year, and it is not necessary to hold the level at the end of last year. It only needs to continue to fall down the cliff. The target of China’s GDP this year is between 6.0% and 6.5%, even if it is a middle number, it is about 6.2%. This shows that the Chinese government’s attitude toward GDP can decline, but it cannot fall off the cliff. The 6.4% growth rate in the first quarter indicates that the economy has been stabilized, and the growth rate of investment will also rise later. Even if the economy declines, it will be quite flat, and there may be a small rebound in the second half due to the base. Therefore, in terms of stabilizing the economy, China does not need to exert more force on the total amount. It only needs to do a good job in the early stage of deployment and implement it. In the latest meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee only proposed two points. One is to insist on counter-cyclical adjustment; the other is to pay more attention to structural problems, and the problems of financing difficulties for private enterprises still exist and continue to be resolved.