April financial data fell back completely
The April financial statistics released by the People’s Bank of China showed that the monthly increase in social welfare was a month-on-month increase, and the new RMB loans also fell sharply to just over 1 trillion yuan, both of which were lower since 2018. Level. At the same time, the money supply data was not as expected, the M1 growth rate fell sharply, and the M2 growth rate declined slightly. Experts pointed out that the contraction of RMB loans and the shrinkage of non-standard loans are the main reasons for the shrinkage of social financing. In April, commercial banks increased non-bank financial institution loans, which led to a large gap in social and financial statistics, such as RMB loans and credit caliber loans, which also led to lower than expected social financing.
Credit and non-standard financing shrinkage
The increase in the number of new RMB loans and social financing has declined, and the growth rate of M1 has dropped sharply again. The stock of social welfare and the growth rate of M2 have stabilized and declined.
For the April financial data (see list), economist Dr. Deng Haiqing commented that the stock and M2 growth rate remained basically stable. On the one hand, the trend of social integration turning point has not changed, but this social transformation will be It is an “L” shape, not a “V” shape. The corresponding economic trend will also be a “L”-shaped mild recovery. On the other hand, the stocks of social welfare and M2 growth have stabilized and declined, reflecting the decline in macroeconomic leverage and the pressure on monetary policy to prevent risks.
According to estimates on Wall Street, the sharp decline in social financing in April was mainly due to the reduction of entrusted loans, foreign currency loans, and undiscounted bank acceptance bills. The scale of entrusted loans decreased again compared with the previous month. Others were compared with the previous month. Reduced by increase. The sub-items of RMB loans, corporate bonds, local government special bonds, trust loans, and domestic stock financing scale of non-financial enterprises continued to grow, and the incremental scale of RMB loans shrank significantly from the previous month.
Deng Haiqing commented that from the perspective of social financing structure, the contraction of RMB loans and the shrinkage of non-standard financing are the main reasons for the shrinkage of social financing; however, the scale of corporate bond financing remains high, the scale of local debt financing has declined, and stock financing The scale has risen and the status of the direct financing market has risen.
Huatai’s macro Li Chao team said that in April, commercial banks increased non-bank financial institution loans, which led to a large gap in the social and financial statistics of RMB loans and credit caliber loans, which was the main reason for the lower than expected social financing.
Pedestrian interest rate cuts increased
In April, RMB loans increased by 1.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 161.5 billion yuan. According to Deng Haiqing, in terms of credit structure, short-term loans for residents in April dropped significantly, and the increase in new medium- and long-term loans was smaller, or related to the rise of the real estate market in first- and second-tier cities. New corporate short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans have fallen sharply, and bill financing has rebounded. The medium and long-term loans of new enterprises have been at a low level since 2018, and they are not high in the total amount of credit, and the credit structure has deteriorated.
Huatai’s macro Li Chao team said that under the pressure of the central bank and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission to support the financing of private and small and micro enterprises, commercial banks have “robbing projects” in the first quarter, and private enterprises and small and micro enterprise credit projects with relatively controllable risks. It became a resource for banks to compete for, so the new credit data in April fell back to expectations. Overall, the probability of a rate cut by the central bank has increased.
Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that the decline in credit in April was mainly due to seasonal factors, while the increase exceeded expectations by 1.02 trillion yuan, and the credit growth rate dropped from 13.7% to 13.5%, reflecting in the early stage to some extent. After the rapid release, deposit-taking financial institutions generally have concerns about future liquidity constraints. In terms of the delivery structure, the credit supply in April was expected to decrease, the short-term loans of enterprises were negative, and the medium and long-term loans were significantly lower than the same period in the past two years. In addition, the performance of resident loans has also been weaker than in the same period of the past two years.
The property market regulation caused M1 to fall sharply
At the end of April, the growth rate of M1 dropped sharply by 1.7 percentage points from the previous value of 4.6% to 2.9%, while M2 stabilized and fell slightly to 8.5%.
Huatai’s macro Li Chao team commented that the Central Political Bureau meeting re-emphasized the real estate regulation and control policy, which is one of the important reasons for the M1 growth rate to fall back.
Lian Ping believes that the direction of the counter-cyclical adjustment of monetary policy has not changed, and the moderate target is adjusted or adjusted by external factors. Although the executive meeting of the State Council of China and the regular meeting of the central bank’s monetary policy committee set a stable and tight tone for the recent monetary policy, if the external negative shock is too large, the monetary policy will still play a counter-cyclical adjustment function, and it is not ruled out that the orientation is loose. The possibility of adjusting the strength.