16/6/2017-1

Chen Delin: reversal of the property market when the fear of interest rate cycle

Hong Kong dollar has not seen any significant increase in interest rates due to the United States, interest rates have not risen, but the HKMA President Chen Delin stressed that the Hong Kong interest rate will rise with the interest rate, “the property market up cycle reversal, is likely to run into interest rate rise cycle" Home buyers to manage the risk.

The banking sector generally believe that the US interest rate factors have long been digested by the market, the table has no real timetable; the US economic recovery slowed down during the year whether the rate hike is also doubtful, short-term not see the Hong Kong dollar sharply capital pressure, Year Hong Kong’s best interest rate is also difficult to raise.

Timely and then reverse the cycle of measures

The United States as expected to raise interest rates, while the first announcement of the tabulation process, the Hong Kong exchange slightly weakened to 7.8013, continue to hover in the 16-month low, 1 month interest rate also rose 0.03% to 0.39%. There was no significant fluctuation in the market, but Mr Chan pointed out that the Hong Kong dollar would be soft and touched 7.85. “Hong Kong dollars will always follow the trend of US dollar interest rates." Home buyers should consider whether they can withstand price fluctuations and whether they can withstand 30-year interest rate risk.

Mr Chan stressed that the property market cycle was different from that in 1997, when the mortgage rate dropped from 10% to 3% to 4% after the property price plunged. However, at the very low level, the property market is reversing the cycle. There may be a rise in interest rate cycle “, if you see the property market risk increases, in order to protect the banking industry, timely and then reverse the cycle of measures.

Chen Delin also pointed out that the Fed’s table can make the financial market more healthy development, because the past wide range of funds to flood the table, the table can make the global financial industry to return to the normal situation.

The increase in the price of the bank this year is limited

Bank of Hong Kong (02388) Investment Management General Manager Chen Shaoping pointed out that the United States announced interest rates and shrink table, the emerging market currencies and Hong Kong dollar remained stable, short-term funds will not be a substantial withdrawal from the Hong Kong dollar market, the United States may even be considered due to economic factors, Or difficult to raise interest rates, Hong Kong this year also expected not to add the best interest rates.

Chen Mingqiao, head of financial markets for Greater China and North Asia in Standard Chartered, said that if the US interest rate hike is raised again during the year, the Hong Kong dollar interbank interest rate will rise, but it will not increase with the increase. This year, Hong Kong banks have not raised their prime rates pressure.

As for the impact of Hong Kong on Hong Kong, Chen Ming-huai pointed out that the current global funds are still quite abundant and have been pursuing high-return assets, which are less sensitive to the risk. The short-term US debt rises, but the long-term debt is unchanged. Table, the long debt will rise to 2.5%, next year’s debt is more likely to see a significant increase, when the flow of funds will be more volatile.