Comprehensively increase interest rates, the new situation of the property market
After the government’s repeated moves to curb, the second-hand property market continues to rise, and the market does not seem to regard government policies as a negative factor in the property market. However, the negative factors in many property markets in recent days are not driven by the government, and they have a far-reaching impact on the property market. Buyers and sellers should not be underestimated.
The biggest negative impact on the second-hand property market is of course the bank’s interest rate hike, because the mortgage interest rate is always the most personal interest of home buyers.
On Monday (13/8), most banks raised the interest-rate ceiling for H-rated interbank interest rates, and individually raised P at the most favorable interest rate according to interest rates. Although the rate hike is only 0.1%, the impact on home buyers is definitely not as simple as $50 per 100,000. Because Hong Kong banks have the opportunity to follow the US rate hike before the end of this year, it is estimated that at least 0.25% will be added. If the rate hike is even this time, the bank will accumulate 0.35 percent at the end of the year, which will have a more obvious impact on the market.
Pressure measurement door soaring
Calculated by a unit of 5 million yuan, with a 25-year mortgage payment of 75%, the monthly supply for the interest rate increase is about 15,092 yuan. This week, the new mortgage payment will increase by 173 yuan, and the monthly supply will be 15,265 yuan. At the end of the year, the bank will add 0.25 yuan. PCT, the real interest rate is 2.5%, and the monthly supply is more than 610 yuan to 17,072 yuan.
Secondly, if the stress test is calculated, the family income of 34,613 yuan before the interest rate hike can enter the market; after the interest rate increase at the end of the year, the stress test will be calculated at 5.5%, and the family income must rise to 35,822 yuan to enter the market, which is 1,209 yuan more than before the interest rate hike. If the current median household income is calculated at a median of 39,600, the increase will be about 3%. The salary increase for wage earners at the beginning of this year has evaporated. According to the data, the civil service pay adjustment plan for 2017-18 has a salary increase of 2.94% for the middle and lower levels. For the property market, under the influence of rising contributions and stress tests, there will be more power shortages in the market, and the reduction in purchasing power will definitely have a negative impact on the second-hand property market.
In fact, there have been many subtle changes in the second-hand property market in recent days. Although there are still many cases of high-cost projects in the market, they are mainly concentrated in second- and third-line low-price housing estates. The large-scale blue-chip housing estates are rarely heard. The price of the garden building is too high, and the purchasing power is difficult to catch up.
Secondly, there are even rare cases of investors in recent years. For example, senior investor “Toy Zheng” Zheng Yuhong has sold at least 8 properties in the year-to-date, with a total of more than 300 million yuan, and some even lower the market price by more than 10%. goods. Secondly, Deng Chengbo and Da Honghui of the “Greater Sands” class sold 70 and 4.5 billion properties respectively. Although it is only a few examples, in terms of traditional wisdom, investors are regarded as “Spring River Ducks”. They are selling their properties at this moment and have a certain influence on the market. Among them, Toy Zheng has the biggest influence, because he sells multiple luxury units at a reduced price, which constitutes a downward pressure on the second-hand luxury residential market in individual areas.
Investors sell big, sell new price
In addition to the large-scale sale of property by investors, in fact, after the government announced the introduction of a vacant tax, developers also joined the ranks of the shipment. In the past month, a number of new low-priced and low-priced goods were sold, including the Tang Ren Xin Cun Fu Yue Yue Ting and the Kowloon Tong La Sha Tsui. Secondly, Xindi’s PARK YOHO Milano was launched in the first batch at a low market price. Some of them were lower than the same area by more than 10%, and the actual price was less than 1 million. The price was less than 6 million yuan, and they took away a large number of customers in the second-hand market. .
In fact, the second-hand property market in the past two weeks can be described as a stagnant water. In many areas, such as Cheung Sha Wan, four small dragons and the Sha Tin Town Centre area, there was no transaction in the first 10 days of August. This shows that the second-hand property market has been adjusted in comparison with the past few years. After the sub-government’s move, the property market is severe. Home buyers cannot but make a more cautious assessment of the market outlook.