17/10/2018-4

The building control is difficult to loosen.

The mainland property market turned cold, and under the factors of Sino-US trade war, US interest rate hike and China’s RRR cut, the market is concerned about whether the central property market regulation is loosened. Some analysts believe that the central government’s “resolutely curbing the rise in housing prices" is difficult to change, while local governments are reluctant to fall sharply, and the property market will stabilize in the future.

September and October are the prosperous months of the mainland property market, commonly known as “Golden September and Silver 10″. However, Leju’s housing search quoted Zhongyuan Real Estate as showing that many large cities such as Shenzhen, Wuhan, Ningbo, etc., have sold new homes in September. Less than August, reflecting the cold market in the mainland property market, the market is worried about the future or decline in property prices.

For the local government, the colder property market will cause the land revenue to fall, and even the bad debts that cannot afford bank loans will increase. Many local governments have financial difficulties, and they naturally do not want to make it worse. Therefore, local governments still announced various relaxation measures. Xiamen, which has recently sold at a reduced price, announced a new settlement policy in early October, and for the first time in eight years, lowered the settlement conditions on Xiamen Island. Guo Shiying, an analyst at Zhuge Housing Research Center, believes that the policy will release the market demand in Xiamen to a certain extent.

PBOC downgrade, the property market impact is not obvious

On the contrary, the central government is reluctant to overheat housing prices. At the end of July, the Politburo meeting of the Communist Party of China has proposed “resolutely curbing the rise in housing prices" and demanded that cities with overheated property prices introduce regulatory measures.

Earlier, the People’s Bank of China lowered the standard, bringing RMB 750 billion to the market, which also brought some spillover effects to the property market. Yan Yuejin, research director of the Yiju Research Center think tank, said that the RRR cut has a positive effect on some real estate developers getting commercial bank loans, and can also stimulate banks to provide personal loans, but the impact on house prices and sales is not obvious. In summary, the property market will now trade down and prices are stable.