Chen Delin: Global interest rates remain low

The interest rate increase and contraction list in the United States will be even more likely to accelerate this year. This will push Hong Kong’s interest rate hike to a 10-year high at the end of last year. However, given the liquidity situation, the interest rate of the People’s Bank of China It also means that this year the global interest rates are likely to remain low.

Global inflation is not high enough to manage risk

Standard Chartered Hong Kong, one of Hong Kong’s banks, also means that Hong Kong has no shortage of funds. Coupled with the fierce market competition in the mortgage market, it is difficult to raise the prime lending rate (P) in the short term.

Chen Delin said at the Asian Financial Forum yesterday that while central banks in all countries started to normalize their interest rates, the global capital is still abundant. This year interest rates have the opportunity to maintain a low level. Interest rates in the low interest rate environment indirectly led to rising prices of assets such as the stock market and the property market. According to Mr Chan yesterday, investors were also advised to manage their risks carefully due to the current low global inflation and the geopolitical influence.

Standard Chartered (02888) Hong Pi, chief executive of Greater China and North Asia and chief executive of retail banking, also said yesterday that while the interest rate hike in Hong Kong follows the rate hike in the United States, the best interest rates of banks are unlikely to rise in the short term. : “The banking system in Hong Kong is still financially abundant, and traditionally, the gap between P and H will be reduced to about 3%, and banks will consider raising P.” At present, the gap between P and H is above 4%.

P and H are still higher than the interest rate difference of 4%

After many years of low interest rates, Hong Kong’s newly built flats account for nearly 90% of the total H shares by HIBOR. At present, the Bank of Hong Kong generally provides H + 1.3% of interest and the capped interest is close to 2.15% of the average. As of yesterday For one month, HIBOR was about 0.93%, higher than the capped income. Therefore, most of the donors are providing mortgage at 2.15%.

Although many hot money risk is still controllable property market

In the face of the interest rate hike, the cost of capital has risen. However, according to the revenue ceiling, Hong Capitol Hill is still captivated by the revenue. Property stability is high and banks are quite willing to make mortgage loans related to the properties. This has led to fierce market competition. Therefore, banks also need to consider the relevant However, it is not yet healthy for banks to hold price war on the property floor for a long time. He added that there is a steady rise in the current level of hot money and less housing supply, but the risks are still manageable.