After the property market, look at the trade war more than the interest rate

After the property market, look at the trade war more than the interest rate

Large banks in Hong Kong have taken the lead in not following the US interest rate hike. The second-hand property market has not seen any change. The real estate industry believes that compared with interest rate fluctuations, the current Sino-US trade war has a greater impact on the property market in Hong Kong. It is estimated that if the mortgage interest rate remains unchanged, And the property price fell by 10%. The mortgage-paying ratio of the private housing mortgage rate (P) will drop from 34.5% in November this year to 30.9%.

Huang Liangsheng, senior co-director of the Central China Real Estate Research Department, said that the large banks in Hong Kong did not raise the best interest rate, indicating that banks have sufficient funds. The median monthly income of the private sector households in the Central Plains was 39,700 yuan, and the average mortgage rate of the HKMA in October was 44.6%. In November, P is calculated based on factors such as the average mortgage rate of 2.375%. The purchase price is 600 square meters. The repayment period is 319 months. The monthly contribution is 13699 yuan. The burden on the building is about 34.5%. After falling 10%, the burden on the purchase of the same unit will fall to 30.9%, and the monthly supply will be about 12,286 yuan.

66% of prospective buyers have not changed their desire to enter the market

Wang Meifeng, managing director of Zhongyuan Mortgage Brokerage, said that banks with strong deposit bases are conditionally not following the US interest rate hike. However, the increase in interest rates may cause some small and medium-sized banks to increase their capital costs, and they need to take the lead in raising interest rates. Overall, she estimates that the prime rate will increase by a maximum of half a year next year, and the mortgage rate is expected to remain below 3%.

Wang Meifeng pointed out that the bank commissioned the Hong Kong People’s Congress’s public opinion research project this month to investigate the public’s intentions, and successfully visited 1015 people. Among them, 66 out of 370 people who claimed to be interested in buying a home, 66% said that even if they raise interest rates, they will not lower their desire to enter the market. .

Liu Yuanyuan, the chief vice president of the Meridian Mortgage Referral, believes that Hong Kong banks have not followed the US interest rate hike, which may lead to capital outflows. The current banking system balance is about 76.3 billion yuan. It is expected that the first half of next year will fall below 50 billion yuan, and the bank will raise interest rates. The estimated range is 0.125% to 0.25%.

Second-hand owners “feeling at the interest rate"

The second-hand market has not seen any change in the placement of landlords due to interest rate factors. Feng Zeyuan, the senior regional co-director of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that the second-hand owners of Shatian District “have a feeling of sighing at the interest rate and swaying the topic”, even if the banks in Hong Kong did not raise interest rates yesterday, There is no change in the asking price of the owners. The prospective buyers have not accelerated the pace of entering the market. “Everyone is waiting for the flat goods, and the most important price is enough."