Chen Delin: It’s still early to withdraw the hottest

Since 2009, the HKMA has launched eight rounds of counter-cyclical measures. The macro environment is uncertain and the property prices have started to adjust. However, the Chief Executive of the HKMA, Mr Chan Tak-lin, reiterated yesterday that it is still not possible to confirm that the property market has entered the down cycle and it will take longer. Observe that once the property market is confirmed, it may be considered to relax the counter-cyclical measures.

Need to confirm the property market enters the down cycle

Hong Kong banks did not follow the US interest rate hike yesterday. The best lending rate (P) remained unchanged. The mortgage interest expenses of mortgage-payers were not affected. However, the property price adjustment in the near-month has re-emerged in the market. According to Chen Delin, according to the data of the Rating and Valuation Department, property prices have only dropped by 3.7% since the July high. It is still early to conclude that the downtrend cycle is too early. The HKMA needs more time to observe the development of the property market before it can confirm whether a down cycle is formed. .

In fact, the property market has also undergone significant adjustments in 2015. He pointed out that property prices fell by nearly 10% at that time. It lasted for nearly six months. The HKMA did not relax the counter-cyclical measures, and then the property prices went up again.

Mr Chan stressed that it is difficult to predict the trend of the property market. Therefore, the HKMA not only looks at the adjustment of property prices, but also depends on a basket of factors such as economic data, global macro performance and property market transactions. It is enough to confirm that the property market is short-term adjustment or enter a longer term. The downside cycle, the stress test conducted by the bank is also a constant job.