Financial Secretary unveiled the financial system to raise interest rates

At the current Sino-US trade war, the Hong Kong government expects that the best interest rate will be raised in the second half of the year, and the ultra-low interest rate environment will end. In his blog, Cai Mao Chen Maobo disclosed the conclusions of the Hong Kong Government’s “self-examination” on the financial system from three perspectives.

It is known that this “self-examination” has three main perspectives:

Family net worth far exceeds debt, extremely stable

1. Hong Kong household net assets and borrowings. Chen Maobo pointed out that the total household debt in Hong Kong has continued to increase in recent years. As of the first quarter of this year, the total debt has equaled about 70% of the GDP. However, it is worth noting that the household savings rate in Hong Kong has also increased. It rose to nearly 27% last year. Higher than the average of OECD countries.

The risk of credit card loans remained at a low level, and the amount of rollovers that were not repaid each month and rolled over to the next month accounted for more than 50% of the total accounts receivable, from more than 50% in the early 2000s to the current 20%.

In terms of assets, it is especially noteworthy. The growth rate of household net assets in Hong Kong is faster than the growth rate of liabilities. About half of these assets are related to properties. But even with the narrowest cash deposits as indicators, Hong Kong’s household net assets are three times their liabilities, and the ratio is higher than Major peripheral economies.

It is understood that the above indicators are only calculated on the basis of cash deposits. If the stocks, funds, etc. that Hong Kong people like to invest in are taken into account, the ratio of net assets to liabilities of Hong Kong households is much higher than three times. In other words, it is quite stable.

2. The first-hand floor and the developer’s second press. Chen Maobo said that the proportion of residential mortgage payments in Hong Kong to household income was the lowest since the 2008 global financial tsunami.

The additional mortgage loans provided by real estate developers have accelerated in 2017, but in general, they are only equivalent to 2.6% of bank mortgage loans. In other words, the ratio is not high.

3. Personal loans that have developed rapidly in recent years. Chen Maobo believes that although other private loans, although the growth rate is relatively high, more than 70% of them have sufficient collateral. Most of them are private banking service investment and wealth management loans.

The property market reverses the fear of pressure and should prepare sufficient funds

Therefore, Chen Maobo concluded that the borrowing situation of Hong Kong households does not constitute a financial security hazard. The Hong Kong banking system also has sufficient capital and liquid assets to withstand the possible impact.

However, he reminded that if the property market adjusts, or the flow of funds changes, the financial situation of individual households may face greater potential pressure, the most important thing is to prepare, including reserve sufficient liquidity for turnover to cope with possible fluctuations. .