Raising interest rates in the property market, the industry is optimistic about the forecast
The United States does not raise interest rates, comprehensive 20 experts analysis, Hong Kong this year, interest rate hikes slightly, enhance buyers’ confidence in entering the market, the industry has adjusted this year’s property market forecast, some developers have changed from a bearish 20% to a stable, many surveyors have been bearish 10% It is now turning positive.
In the second half of 2018, the outbreak of trade wars and the introduction of new housing policies caused the property market to break the cable and enter the consolidation period. Most industry experts are cautious about the trend of the property market this year.
Ample money in the port
The US Federal Reserve has changed its interest rate hike this year from two “fighting pigeons" to no interest rate hikes. This newspaper synthesizes the latest views of 20 developers, surveying industry and bank mortgage industry. Most of them think that Hong Kong may not add this year. Interest rate and low interest rate environment will increase market confidence, speed up the pace of entering the market, and stimulate property prices to rise by 5 to 10% throughout the year.
The banking industry believes that the current monetary policy is still sufficient. Hong Kong’s interest rate hike is lower this year. The low interest rate environment continues. The interest rate for the building is maintained at a low level of about 2%. However, it is difficult to make a U-turn “rate reduction" incentive during the year.
In terms of developers, it is generally believed that the US does not raise interest rates directly to benefit the property market and adjust the outlook for the property market. Emperor International (00163) executive director Zhang Bingqiang originally looked down on the market, and the price of the building fell by 2 to 30% this year, but yesterday said that market confidence in recent months is indeed better than last year, interest rate is one of the factors affecting the property market trend, still has to It takes only one to two months to observe whether the property market will fully recover.
New World Development (00017) Business and Marketing Director Huang Haoxian pointed out that the property market has seen a corner last year. Personally, it expects a maximum of 5% increase this year. Currently, the United States does not raise interest rates and stops shrinking. It is believed that it will enhance the confidence of users in the market and have confidence. The increase in property prices has expanded to 8 to 10%. It is also said that the group will speed up the pace of the market in response to market conditions. On Saturday (23rd), after the sale of Ma Tau Kok, the deployment of the Ho Man Tin Waterloo Road Project will be launched next month, involving about 240 people.
Real estate agents are optimistic about the performance of the market outlook. The Central Plains expects property prices to return to last year’s high level in May. The United States believes that the property market can be extended to small houses by small and medium-sized units.
As for the many surveyors who were bearish last year, the original bearish property price was 10%, and the outlook for the market outlook is now positive. DTZ’s “V-shaped rebound" appears. From 15% to the first half of the year, property prices can regain historical highs. Individual large housing estates can rise by 2 to 30%. First Pacific also expects the property market to develop steadily.
However, many experts and scholars have mentioned that although the interest rate hike has slowed down and the property prices have risen in the short term, there are still many uncertainties surrounding the development of the property market; the external aspects include the trade war is not completely resolved, the global economic growth is slowing down, and The tightening of funds in the Mainland will adversely affect the flow of foreign capital into Hong Kong.
In addition, some new disc areas are more supplied, and housing policies such as increased public housing and vacant taxes will have a pressure on the pricing of new discs, which will have an impact on the property market atmosphere.