Public and private housing supply is not as expected

Public and private housing supply is not as expected

When the Transport and Housing Bureau responded to the question of the Legislative Council, it once again compiled some subsidized data on the sale of housing. It seems that it is still in a state of urgency. The subsidized sale houses that are visible this year include:

. The Housing Authority will launch 4,871 HOS flats in 2019, including six development projects in Ho Man Tin, Cheung Sha Wan, Kwai Chung, Tseung Kwan O, Ma On Shan and Sha Tin.

. In March 2019, the Housing Authority decided to convert two public housing projects at Chai Wan Road and Tsing Yi Estate, Tsing Yi, to Green House. A total of about 700 flats were provided. It is expected to be pre-sold at the end of 2019.

The above two groups should be the subsidized houses available for sale this year, with only about 8,571.

In the long run or as a short-term, subsidized housing for sale in the form of uncompleted flats, the Housing Authority said that the government announced on June 29, 2018 that nine of the original plans will be sold in the next few years. The use of the site at the MTR Road Mines is for public housing use. It is expected to provide about 11,000 public housing units to help narrow the supply shortage of public housing in the later stages. One of the sites in Kai Tak will be granted to the Housing Society to redevelop the village of Zhen Shan Mei, and then redevelop the village of Le Min Xin Village in the original site of Zhen Shan Mei Village. The remaining new units in the Kai Tak site can also be used to rehouse other eligible tenants affected by the Government Development Project or the Urban Renewal Authority project.

Increase the proportion of public housing

For the remaining eight sites, the Housing Authority and the Housing Society will each sell a site in Kai Tak and three sites at the Anderson Road Quarry for consideration of the original planning intentions and neighbouring developments. houses. Therefore, 11,000 people will be fully subsidized to sell homes.

Public housing is increasing, but facing the problem of not adding fast enough. An earlier report by Midland Realty pointed out that one of the main reasons for the rebound in the property market in the first quarter was that the long-term plan would change the ratio of public and private housing from 6:4 to 7:3, although the target for public housing supply in the next 10 years would increase. 12.5%, but under the overall land supply shortage, the private housing supply target was reduced by 25%, and the overall 10-year supply target was also reduced by about 2.2%.

It is worth noting that the target of public housing supply has been raised. It is not excluded that some prospective purchasers have switched to the public market. However, the demand for home ownership is huge. The number of applications for new HOS flats last year was over 270聽000, and the over-subscription was about 60 times. Under the “small and porridge", some prospective buyers who have not been successful in the process may switch to the private market. From this, it can be seen that even if the supply of land is insufficient, even if the proportion of the public camp is raised, it will be a “rule to cure the problem." On the other hand, the latest 10-year private housing supply target has been lowered to an average of 13,500 gangs per year, a 25% reduction, while the average annual turnover of 14,600 cases is less than the past 10 years, highlighting the situation of short supply and the lack of both ends.

At the same time, the supply of private buildings is insufficient, while the supply of private buildings has decreased. The United States report said that the potential supply of land for sale will be reduced, and the developer will also reduce the amount of land storage. The potential land supply for the past eight financial years will be reduced. It is estimated that the average number of units that can be built is about 29,400 per year, but the actual number of land suppliers that the developer has absorbed in the past 8 years is only about 19,400, with an average ratio of only 66%.

In the new fiscal year (from April), the potential land supply is only about 15,500. If the ratio is calculated at 70%, the number of units that can be absorbed in the new fiscal year will be less than 11,000, and the number will be reduced by about 25 per fiscal year. %. Unless there is a large number of land premiums, the developer’s absorption of land reserves will be reduced. The first-hand supply in the next three to four years, which has fallen from the high level, will only be easy to fall.