Hong Kong to raise interest rates rise alarm market is facing the test
Reserve announced the contract since October, and is expected to raise interest rates before the end of next year, plus 3 times interest rate. Hong Kong’s interest rate hikes have risen recently and the rally has continued. It will inevitably touch the ceiling on the floor, or reverse the long-term low interest rate of Hong Kong people, triggering a marked adjustment in the property market.
The declaration issued a statement, from the release of the bitmap to predict the median interest rate before the end of 1.375%, suggesting that in December will raise interest rates, and next year, plus 3 times interest rate, after the year to raise interest rates 2 times.
The HKMA is holding a ”
From the US stocks heard the first rise, reflecting the market is still optimistic that the next year may not raise interest rates 3 times. Reserve last year also predicted that this year plus 3 times interest rates, has also been questioned, but now it seems that the store said to do, next year whether to add 3 times interest, investors do not take it lightly.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has called on investors to prepare for the rise of the Hong Kong dollar. As the Hong Kong dollar interest rate will widen further, the Hong Kong dollar will eventually trigger a weak exchange rate of $ 7.85. Capital will flow out, the harbor will rise, asset prices become more volatile.
The HKMA has already made a move ahead of the table, such as the recent issuance of $ 40 billion in Exchange Fund Bills, which will take away market liquidity and rely on high interest rates. This is due to the fact that the HK $ 4 billion in hot money entering the territory after the financial tsunami may be withdrawn on a large scale, A serious impact on the Hong Kong stock market and the property market. The HKMA does not want the hot money to retreat, and it has recently been “deflated” for the asset bubble by relying on high interest rates.
It is hard to pay for the rent of the building
The HKMA’s action has raised Hong Kong’s one-month rallies in the past three days by 0.12% to 0.54% yesterday, up more than 28%. When the interest rate is expected to continue, the HKMA will continue to report that it would not be difficult to approach the 2.25% (P = -2.75%) of the ceiling at the end of the year. At present, the majority of mortgage owners have chosen H to be H + 1.4% H, and if the interest rate rises by 0.31%, it will reach an upper limit of 2.25%. Taking a $ 6 million unit as an example, the contract will be made for 60 years and the monthly contribution will be increased from $ 15,154 to $ 15,701.
The more serious the case is that if the interest rate rises to the end of the Hong Kong bank, the contribution will be further increased. As investors are accustomed to ultra-low interest rates for too long, the rental rate has dropped to only 2.8% or less. When the interest rate rose to near or above the rental rate of return, investors found unprofitable, the property market demand for investment losses. So that not only the owners of the property for the day-to-day sense of difficulty, investors look also fear of change, so that the property market to reverse the atmosphere, or will trigger a more obvious adjustment.
Hong Kong property prices seem to be high, but the rise in interest rates has sounded the alarm, and the ultra-low interest rate is gradually changing. In particular, there is an additional risk in Hong Kong. The property market will face a real test, the Hong Kong Government, small owners and investors should not despise the risk.