The statement is expected to end in September. The Reserve Bureau will not raise interest rates this year.
The US Federal Reserve concluded the meeting and decided to keep interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. In addition to paying attention to the speech delivered by Chairman Powell, the investment sentiment was weak and the US stock market was soft in the early period. The market generally expects the US to keep interest rates unchanged and pay more attention to when to stop shrinking. The US stock market was on the sidelines. The Dow fell 80 points to 25,806, while the Nasdaq fell 7 points to 7716. As for Europe, the British, French and German stock markets have all fallen slightly.
After the US Federal Reserve ended its two-day interest rate meeting, the interest rate remained unchanged and it is expected that there will be no interest rate increase this year. US stocks were on the sidelines in the early part of last night. After the announcement, the middle finger pointed to a drop of 24 points to 2,586, and the Nasdaq rose 20 points to 7745. As for Europe, the British, French and German stock markets have all fallen slightly.
The Fed also expects no interest rate hike this year, emphasizing patience in raising interest rates in the future. The Bureau will also slow down the scale of its balance sheet from May, from $30 billion to $15 billion per month, and will stop shrinking at the end of September.
After the meeting, the statement said that the US labor market remained strong, but economic activity growth slowed down. Compared with the forecast of December last year, the US economy has slowed down this year and next, with this year’s forecast growth of 2.3%, down to 2.1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 25,745 points at 4,400 points, down 141 points; the Nasdaq index rose to 5 points at 7728 points.
The price of HSBC (005) American Depositary Receipts has seen HK$64.73, which is lower than the closing price of Hong Kong by HK$0.32. The price of Tencent (700) American Depositary Receipts has seen HK$371.38, which is higher than the closing price of Hong Kong by HK$1.38.
Yan Junsheng, chief economist of Hang Seng Bank, said that due to poor economic data in the United States, especially the first quarter GDP (gross domestic product) growth was less than one percent, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but said the market is more focused on The Fed’s latest forecast for the number of interest rate hikes this year. He estimates that the chances of a one-time or zero-rate increase in the US this year will depend on the economic data performance and inflation in the second half of the year.
According to the Fed’s interest rate intention map in December last year, it is predicted that interest rates will be raised twice this year and will occur in the second half of the year. However, most of the current market estimates that the US interest rate hike is not expected during the year, and may even cut interest rates.
Li Ruofan, an economist at Wing Hang Bank of China, said that the Fed did not move this time. She thought that the Fed’s latest dot pattern or the number of interest rate hikes would change from twice to once. The interest rate will remain unchanged next year, but the bank expects the United States not to add this year or next. The reason is that the local economy is underperforming, inflation is moderate, and there are too many uncertainties in the periphery. If the US interest rate remains the same, I believe Hong Kong has no chance to raise interest rates.
Lin Junyi, head of the research department of Shangshang Treasury Business Department, believes that the US interest rate hike in the first half of the year is slight, indicating that the current market is mainly concerned with the Fed’s dot matrix change and the intention and timetable of the stoppage table. He estimates that the US will raise interest rates once a year or keep interest rates unchanged. If the United States raises interest rates once, according to the current situation, the Hong Kong banking system balance will have a chance to fall below 30 billion yuan in September. Therefore, Hong Kong has the opportunity to follow the US interest rate hike, which is expected to increase by one-eighth.
When the United States stopped the contract, Xue Junsheng expected that the Fed would stop shrinking in the second half of the year. As the scale of the US economy expanded in the past decade, banks need more reserves to buffer the new regulatory requirements, so the United States needs to have a larger The balance sheet to support the economy.