Hong Kong pay attention in the third quarter before the additional

As the market expected, the US Federal Reserve last week to raise interest rates 0.25%, the benchmark interest rate target range rose to 1 to 1.25%. After that, Yelun also expressed confidence that the US economy will continue to grow and the job market continues to strengthen, believing to raise interest rates again by the end of this year.

US interest rate hike worries

Interest rate is already within the market expected, as long as the step by step to add, it will not be regarded as a scourge. On the contrary, the market has been watching the Federal Reserve to reduce the size of the US balance sheet, because we have been afraid of the Federal Reserve will be the tsunami since the year to buy bonds and assets to sell the market, tightening the current liquidity, thus affecting the assets Market performance.

However, the Federal Reserve once again shows that the initial scale of only $ 10 billion per month, compared to the current 4.5 trillion balance sheet, be negligible. Therefore, the US rate hike after the global stock market and bond market performance is still normal, the US interest rate hike is also temporarily eliminated.

Pay attention to the local capital situation

Hong Kong has embraced the linked exchange rate. Although the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates several times, the Hong Kong Government has not raised its upside down. This is also the most worrisome part of the market.

As a matter of fact, the strength of the US dollar against the Hong Kong dollar does not mean that there is an urgency for the outflow of funds from the local market. According to the current objective situation, it should be a fund-raising exercise in Hong Kong. However, if the Hong Kong dollar continues to follow the increase in interest rates, The decline in attractiveness will also result in a decline in the amount of funds in the local banking system and will force local banks to raise the best interest rate on the Hong Kong dollar. I believe this will happen in the third quarter.

However, I think that the normal rate of follow the US interest rate increase, the impact on Hong Kong stocks is not, but to pay attention to whether the local will suddenly take the money to withdraw high.

Adjust the proportion of shares is relatively large

In the periphery without wind without waves, coupled with the first half of the knot soon, but also coincides with Hong Kong’s return to the motherland for 20 years, I believe how much favorable Hong Kong stocks made good. However, the Hang Seng Index rose to 26,000 points after the psychological barrier, many investors believe that the technology has been overbought, regardless of whether the Vanguard believe that the strong, the overall capital are inclined to the current level of reduction. In fact, even if the index does not change, but adjust the proportion of shares is also relatively large.

No new investment in Hong Kong stocks

Before we have analyzed with you, there is no incentive to trigger the stock market, but as a balance of risk arrangements, beginning in early June has been slightly higher slightly reduced, at least make yourself feel at ease. From another point of view, the market has accumulated a lot, first take advantage of consolidation is reasonable. Unless the short term in the market with the next break in the deal, or temporarily add a new note into Hong Kong stocks, temporarily still with a moderate hold to wait and see.