19/6/2017-8

The rate of double tube should be carefully controlled

Despite the slowdown in recent economic data, the US Federal Reserve is still raising interest rates, and clearly maintain the pace of gradual increase in interest rates, and proposed to reduce the balance sheet road map; plus the Bank of England internal claims to raise interest rates increased, drag the global stock market weakness. As the Bureau did not disclose the exact time, nor did it specify its final target for the reduction of the scale. The point of the dispute was whether the amount of reduction and the schedule should be advanced in the fourth quarter. After the announcement of the currency and bond market also have different reactions, the US 10-year debt rise or fall, mainly due to the local core inflation last month for the fourth consecutive month fell, and the Bureau set a 2% inflation target distance Moreover, if the interest rate hike is counted twice, the real interest rate has risen by 1 percentage point this year. Therefore, it is difficult to maintain the “eagle” posture for a long time.

In fact, the US economy has improved, the authorities have stopped expanding the table for more than three years, but has been re-investing assets to return the capital to maintain the size of positions, and reinvestment measures to help maintain low debt. It is generally accepted that if the Treasury starts to scale, it will stop the maturity of the bonds and reinstate the bonds in the shorter term. However, due to the table will be directly from the market to extract funds, affecting the liquidity of the banking system, coupled with the current US bond yield curve tends to flat, as mentioned earlier, it will be easy to make long and short debt upside down, the asset price Bearish effect, so that long-selling pressure to increase, to stimulate the dollar strengthened, so carefully control the scale to reduce the impact of the table.

In addition to the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan also began to study the details of delisting, reflecting even if the inflation is uncertain, but with the global economic growth has accelerated, the job market weakness, the world’s major central banks Monetary policy tends to be synchronized, and there is no need for ultra-loose policy to promote. The Asian Central Bank’s lessons learned from the 2013 crisis of “reducing the crisis” have been actively increasing foreign exchange reserves in recent years as a buffer for possible shocks in the market. The current ammunition is $ 6 trillion to cope with large-scale reflow of funds and avoid pushing up financing costs.

The Asian central bank, the mainland outside the store to increase the more significant this year, foreign reserves increased by four months, last month increased by more than 24 billion US dollars, to more than 3 trillion US dollars, an increase of 14 years in April to the best. Malaysia and Singapore have also increased significantly, while India’s foreign reserves are at record highs. Another Indonesia in the implementation of the ideal reform, has been a number of rating agencies to increase credit rating, help to attract capital into the local. As the People’s Bank recently did not raise the operating rate of monetary policy instruments, mainly due to the stability of the RMB exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves have increased, so that capital flows improved. In addition, the deleveraging policy led to rising bank interest rates, the cost of real economic financing has been raised, coupled with the economy is in the inventory cycle and the end of the real estate cycle, the second half of the downward pressure, with the leveraged policy to achieve the results of the stage, People do not need to rush to raise interest rates, on the contrary with the market uncertainty to reduce the favorable A shares continued to rebound in the low.