First-hand cargo explosion

According to a research report, in the fourth quarter of last year, the amount of first-hand cargo was the highest since the first quarter of 2007. What is the concept of more than 13,000 people?

According to a report by the Central Plains Real Estate Research Department, the number of private homes in the first quarter of 2018 was 13,357, a 47-quarter high. The report believes that the main reason for the rise in the cargo is the adjustment of the property market, not the lack of purchasing power. Since 2019, developers have sold their prices at market prices, and their sales are ideal. It is estimated that the tail volume will only increase moderately in the next quarter.

This year, there are “three more” new sales pressure

In the fourth quarter of 2018, 254 new disc statistics were selected, with a total of 98,088 units, 84,588 registered sales, 13,357 cargo tails, and a cargo weight of 13.6%. The tail of cargo increased by 2,987 quarter-to-quarter, and the proportion of cargo tails increased by 2.3 percentage points quarter-to-quarter. The cargo tail is nearly 19 quarterly highs, and the cargo tail volume is 47 quarterly highs, which is the highest since the first quarter of 2007, when it rolled over to more than 15,000 units.

The attached table shows the statistics of the Central Plains. Since 2000, the quarter with the most inventory endings should be the second quarter of 2003. At that time, there were 27,378 first-hand cargo tails, and the least quarter was the third quarter of 2011. Only 4,956 people. Tang Rong also calculated the 76 quarters of the schedule, the long-term average rolling stock tails, 11,189 people in quarter, in other words, 13,357 units in the fourth quarter of last year, has been higher than the long-term average of about 19%, personally think It is worthy of attention. In particular, there are “three more” in this year. It is estimated that there will be more new flats for sale, more new flats will be completed, and more cargo will be accumulated. Spicy strokes continue to affect, I believe that developers will bring some pressure on the new sales.

The report also mentioned that the quarterly increase in regional cargo tails was the largest in the New Territories, up 39.0%, an increase of 2,662. Kowloon District rose 19.1%, an increase of 311. Hong Kong Island increased slightly by 0.7%, an increase of 14. The areas where cargo tails increased significantly by season: 1,196 were added to Tuen Mun, with 1,568; Yuen Long was increased by 1,571 and 2,308.

In contrast, Tseung Kwan O was reduced by 1,495 and 1,394. In the fourth quarter of 2018, Xindi’s new orders were 3,303, Henderson 1,732, Wheelock 366, New World 234, and Changshi 84.