2/11/2018-8

Deng Juming: The short-term decline in property prices is not large

The property market turned to the trend, the chairman of the Prince Jewellery Watch, Deng Juming, believes that the external factors and the interest rate upwards, the property market is hard to be affected, the property price is also expected to call back, but I believe the rate is not high. In addition, he believes that in order to make the retail market better, it must first solve the bearing problem, such as increasing the hotel.

In recent months, the atmosphere of the property market has clearly changed, trading has been quiet, and the transaction price has started to fall slightly. Deng Juming, who has always been active in the investment market, believes that the property market does not have much good news and has internal and external problems. “There is not much good news and positive factors in the property market. The Sino-US trade war has not stopped. First, we must look at the United States. Mid-term elections. Political disputes can last for a long time, which makes many market participants feel uneasy."

Mainland funds are reduced, luxury home sales are quiet

As for the local factors, he thinks that it is not a good time to invest in housing for the time being. “Hong Kong’s own government does not encourage investment in housing. It has introduced a number of property market measures to curb the investment climate. In the past few years, property prices have continued to rise, but interest rates have been low. The price increase, from the investment point of view, bought a building 6 years ago, and then the property price rose, the return fell to less than 3%. If the return rate rebounds, only the property price falls." In addition, he refers to the lack of mainland funds, luxury homes Trading has also quieted down.

Regarding the trend of property prices, he thinks that it will fall in the short term, but the decline will not be too big. “Because the industry has strong cargo capacity, many friends have more than one property and they are not eager to sell at a reduced price."

Optimistic about the rent of Minsheng District, rents rose 3%

In terms of residential investment, he has absorbed high-quality special units from time to time. For example, in 2016, he spent 76 million yuan to purchase the top floor A of Block 2, Yinhai, No.1, Tai Kok Tsui, with a price of $43,500. Both the cost and the price of the building were the highest in the housing estate at that time. Regarding investment, he believes that the value of residential investment is declining. This year, the stock investment will be aggravated. “Unless it is used for self-use, getting on the train or changing the building, it is not worth investing in housing. Although the stock market is volatile, it is better to be liquid. Big blue chips generally have 4 to 6 cents, and many stocks have undoubtedly fallen sharply in recent months, but there is no problem with them."

If he invests in a property, he prefers to invest in non-residential properties. Since the industry is retail, he has a deep understanding of the retail market. This year, there are also investment shops. For example, he will purchase a multi-storey shop at the Anda Center, No. 323 Queen’s Road West, West Loop, with an area of ​​about 28,777 square meters. Hey, the price is about 11,000 yuan. Another 100 million yuan was purchased into a basement store in Queen’s Road Central, Central.

He pointed out that at present, investment properties only pick up low water. “The price of more than 10,000 yuan is better than the price of residential flats." Compared with the market in Minsheng District, “the annual rent is about 3 to 5%, but not The increase will be very large. The rents in the core areas will be more difficult to increase, and the investment value will be less than in the past."

In the overall market, he thinks that the retail landscape is very different from the past. “The performance of the mainland stock market is also poor. Consumption will always be conservative. Therefore, luxury consumption will be affected. In fact, many large-scale infrastructure projects have been completed this year, including the high-speed rail and the Hong Kong Pearl. The Australian Bridge, in theory, is conducive to visitors visiting Hong Kong. He believes that short-term benefits are limited. “It is only for mainland visitors to come to Hong Kong one more way, or it will increase the proportion of returning guests on the same day, but the overall figure is unlikely to rise significantly in the short term."

High-speed rail, Hong Kong and Macau, only increase the number of tourists

He pointed out that Hong Kong is a tourist city. The hotel’s carrying capacity needs to be solved. “Even if there are many roads to Hong Kong, the number of passengers will increase and the carrying capacity will be insufficient. The most obvious hotel is not enough. In recent years, the number of hotels has been reduced. On the contrary, there are many quality hotels. There is no way for the business people to do business. The cost of operating the hotel is too heavy. It is necessary to hire a large number of employees. On the contrary, it is enough to operate a commercial building. It is enough to set up three or two staff members in the rental department, resulting in insufficient hotel and no room for more tourists. Even if the house price exceeds 1,000 yuan per night, the operator may not have the money to make it. Therefore, I hope that the government can improve, for example, providing preferential hotels to build hotels and increasing supply is a good thing for the tourism industry."