With the United States interest rates go to the United States by the end of next year, the fear of rising to 1.5%

As the United States normalizes its interest rates, the interest rate in Hong Kong will eventually rise. Some analysts pointed out that in the short term, there will be no upward pressure on Hong Kong interest rates, but interest rates will inevitably follow up with the expectation that the end of next year or see 1.5%.

Bank balance enough short-term is not under pressure

Benefiting from the abundant domestic banking system balance as a buffer, there is no obvious adjustment pressure in the short term. Comprehensive financial sector currently expects the fastest upward pressure will have to wait until the third and fourth quarters of next year will emerge.

Under the joint exchange mechanism, Hong Kong, the United States and the United States will eventually converge. In the past, Hong Kong’s rate hike cycle narrowed the gap between Prime Rate (P) and HIBOR (H) to about 3%. The current spread is still widening to nearly 4%. In the short run, The urgency of adjustment.

Under the influence of the US rate hike, he estimates that one-month rate hikes will stabilize at 1% of the future. He expects the United States to raise interest rates only twice a year next year. In the third quarter, Hong Kong dollar interest rates will therefore have a higher chance of adjustment. Will further rise to 1.5%.

If next year, increase the burden on the P supply

If P is adjusted, the most direct impact on the general public will be reflected in the contribution on the floor. Although most new H loans made this year have reached the level of the cap, it is noteworthy that since the ceiling on H is generally reduced by P by 2.85%, once the bank decides to increase P, it will also increase the payout per person Monthly contribution expenses.

As regards other loans, market participants generally expect that the impact of P on the market sentiment will be more substantial than the actual effect, as the loans linked to H will become mainstream loans in recent years and the effect of P as an indicator interest rate will gradually diminish. As a result, no major shock will be caused .